I put trendlines on here that have SIGNIFICANT touch-points along the last 45+ years of market action.
I also highlighted in bright green where there was a dip below the highest of the MAJOR 20+ year trendline to show how the market accumulated below those prices and regrouped for the latest rally.
Do "trends" really work in this manner? Are there really trends? Or are there cycles too? There are many questions I have tried to answer about the stock market throughout my 1000+ charts I have posted here at TradingView over the last 4 years. If you look carefully, you will see the Presidential Cycle in graphed in a subtle way in the background. If you don't look for it, you probably wont see it.
What I do try to point out very carefully, is that there are periods of ACCUMULATION and periods of DISTRIBUTION in the market and we can measure those and THEN USE THEM AS REFERENCES OR MEASURING STICKS for the next move and see how the market does compared to it's "Condition".
What I have called this Accumulation/Distribution is "Time@mode" or "Time At Mode".
For now, review these long term trend lines and see how they interacted with the market and where they are and how fast they are moving up because I have to imagine we may run into the highest one at some point in the next 8 years.
With best regards,
Tim West
Chat host along with @IvanLabrie of "Key Hidden Levels" chat room at TradingView.com
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30 Year Interest Rates in the US to go along with Stock Prices
You can see the trend is still very much "down".
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The green lines are "President of the United States (POTUS) Elections"
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keshavreddi
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Thanks Tim, nice chart, by looking the chart from very long term perspective will give a clear directions, however we may see bumps along the way.
timwest
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@keshavreddi, Thanks! And my point here too is that using the "lowest lows" for drawing trendlines isn't the only way to do it. There are "central tendencies" that are picked up by this "internal trendline" that "regression" lines don't pick up on.
timwest
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@keshavreddi, And the TYX chart, I use the "highest lows" to make trendlines and not the "highest highs". It gives a much more useful picture.
zhipengcfel
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Awesome chart!!!
arker
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Thanks Tim for sharing... market is innocent till proven guilty