I thought I saw that pattern before. So we have reached a state of lull between the three main players at this time, OIL, Stocks (represented here by SPX500), and the dollar (USDJPY - and inversely the EURUSD pair). Note that all 3 are correlated, and that cannot stay that way for long. The jobs report (and maybe the ADP this morning) Friday will tip the scale, and cause one relationship to go inverse. The reaction to the jobs number will be a huge tell to what the fed will do 9-17, and if they raise rates, dollar up, oil down, and if they go dovish, dollar down, oil up? And how will the markets interpret? Oil down means world wide recession confirmed, and the lower it goes the more it will worsen yet the poor conditions of economies, and worse 3rd quarter reports for US companies, Canada already in recession, small world countries in depression, and I think markets down, down, down. BUT, if they are smart, and do whatever it takes to raise oil prices, which means devalue the dollar, which means DO NOT RAISE RATES (and some are not sure of even that relationship now, and if they do that expecting the dollar down, but it still goes up because everyone else is devaluing - yikes bad scenario) , regardless of the jobs numbers - which I expect to be poor, which means oil up even if the supply and demand relationship has not changed, do markets react positive or negative? What a canundrum, which is causing volatility on its own. And having said all that, all of what I said is subject to change and disagreement, which is also spurring volatility. Conclusion, at this time, the only thing that is certain is volatility, which is subject to change. LOL, IMO, HELP, SOS.
Kommentare
IvanLabrie
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You know what I want to see: rates up, dollar down/oil up/stocks down.
Time will tell.
claydoctor
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Me too, but, problem with that, will dollar go down if they raise rates? Historically, its the other way. But this time could be different, we will have to wait and see.
IvanLabrie
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It sure is, but if the equities are going to crash, then the dollar will probably too, since it's mostly carry trade pumped, right?
At least vs eur and jpy.
claydoctor
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Unfortunately, I am not sure of that. Wish I was. I think that is the big question on everyone's minds, or it should be. Waiting now on the ADP number at 8:30 am est. I think the market gets moving after that today. The overnight was consolidation waiting for something to move it. Every other currency is devaluing, and dollar keeps going higher regardless. The big crash is this: all currencies down, AND THE DOLLAR, AND OIL, and the markets. If the FED raises, that just might be the unusual case. And it takes the unusual to cause the big crashes doesn't it?
claydoctor
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I still think the price of OIL is the key to everything in this entire world right now. I hope they see that too.
Time will tell.