hugh.gill

S&P 500 IDEA --SHORT--OverBought--

SP:SPX   Der S&P 500 Index
Would you invest into a chart that was this overextended. ?? Historically the longest the S&P500             has not gone without a pullback is 7-8 years Currently the index is trending up for the last 11-12 years without a pullback. The RSI is in the most over extended its been in decades.

Taking a look at the last two big crashes the first being the 2000 DOTCOM bubble the S&P 500             went into a 2 year long BEAR market before finding support and a trend change. We saw over 50% of a Pullback once it did POP

Now take a look at the most recent POP in 2007-8 The Housing Bubble POP. This caused yet another 50-60%% Pullback and a two year BEAR Market before the trend changed.

Its been roughly 12 YEARS since we have seen the S&P 500             have another pullback. Now my question is 1.Would you invest into this chart?? I wouldn't..

With a market cap of nearly 20 Trillion currently if we did see another pullback of 50% we would see almost 10 trillion spill into other markets.. My first bet would be GOLD             , Silver             ,... But if we see even 2 trillion fall into the Crypto Currency Space we would see a historic rise in value in this new and exciting space..

Could the Crypto Currency Market be the reason for a shift in an already over overbought over priced S&P 500             ??

Food for thought..

Let me know you thought's in comment below if you are interested


Good analysis. Where do you see the S&P in the next 6months and 1 year from now?
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