SPX - How high can it go ?

The fourth wave from Nov 4th's bottom is almost completed. Now what will the upcoming 5th do ?
The only guideline available now is that the 3rd is shorter than the 1st. Since the 3rd can't be the shortest (one of the unbreakable Elliott's rules), that entails that the fifth will be shorter than the third. But how much shorter ?
The Dow made a new all time high yesterday. This opens up the possibility that the SPX will try to do the same. If so, the correct labeling will be B instead of 2. But the downside target shall remain the same : a test a of the 8 years trendline. Right now it passes around 1935. At the end of November the line crosses 1955. That would seem to be a good timeframe. The fifth wave could very well fail to register a new high (to surpass the 3rd). If so we will conserve the current labeling.

Both counts offer a potential humongous short trade.

Happy trading.

Kommentar:

The 4th could very well be over. (If not, we're still be in its d wave). The third wave spans over 56.5 points. And since wave 3 can't be the shortest for that count to remain valid, this is the maximum allowed for the fifth. The e low was 2,157.2. Adding 56.5, it gives us an ultimate target of 2,213.7. Higher than that, and the count would be invalidated.

Starting instead from the a low (2,151.2), and adding 56.5, the magic number is 2,207.7.
Other resistance levels are:
2182.1 (top of the third wave) which would imply a fifth wave failure, very possible at this juncture.
2,193.4 (the SPX all time high set last summer) Note that the 8 months uptrend is now that vicinity. This would be my preferred target.

However this plays out, we should see a top next week.
Short on strength. with a stop at 2215.

Happy trading