The SPX has the same message as my post last night about the Nasdaq. Very high probability to day is down. Decline today could be moderate, maybe 10 -12 SPX points. If the count is correct it sets up a very big down day on 1/6/17 - US Employment report.
Very good risk/reward for SPX trades on today's 1/5/17 open . Place stops for shorts above SPX 22273.80
Mark
Kommentare
kunsan
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It hit the 54 target almost exactly, and is now rising strongly. My feeling is that this completes wave 'c' of the FLAT expected for wave 4. I cannot make out the falling pattern, except that it might have been an expanding diagonal of threes. Whether that fits with Wave pattern rules I really don't know. Anyway, the target got hit and SPX is now rising in what looks initially like a five. If so, this is likely W1 of W5 with a target of 2313/7.
kunsan
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I expected the 80/83 area to be the middle wave of a FLAT W4, and if so the final wave 'c' of the flat should be returning quite quickly to the 52/4 area either by way of a straight five or a descending wedge.
The drop from 82 to 65 was encouraging for that scenario, but the sudden rebound back to the 79 area brings the outlook into doubt. It can still decline to the 52/4 target area but I think there's less certainty of that now. I took profits on the first drop as I was expecting a small bounce. Just removed my other shorts for b/e. Happy to stand aside until the pattern becomes a higher probability play.
@markrivest, I have had a closer look and still believe that a decline to the 52/4 area is a high probability. Given the action so far, the likelihood is of a descending wedge. I expected the target area to be hit quickly, but the decline might be more leisurely and to most observers might look like a descending bullish pennant from the 82 top. The bounce upwards to 79 might be the first part of a triangle for wave 'b' of the wedge. Time will tell.
@markrivest, it got down to 61, which might be a bullish failure to hit the 52/4 target. However all my calculations suggest that 52/4 is the 'perfect' target, and without that target being hit I'm inclined to be cautious. Yes, it might be a failure and now start to rise strongly towards the 2313/7 next upper target. But for the moment I'm happy to stand aside and see what develops.
The bulls are relentless. I will have a new post in a few hours.
Mark
kunsan
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We got the suggested rise to the 80/3 area. As mentioned previously, I think this is the middle 'B' wave of an expanded FLAT 4th wave. It's a clean rising wedge on SPX which reinforces the B wave idea.
If so, SPX will now decline in wave C. The ideal target is the 54/6 area, although a 61.8 retrace will be 52/3. So somewhere in that area should complete the FLAT for wave 4.
If all this comes about, I think SPX will then rise to my original 2313/7 target area in wave 5 and will likely reach that target area around the time of the inauguration.