SPX Opening Call 12/29/16

SP:SPX   Der S&P 500 Index
105 5
In bull markets the surprises come to the upside. The reverse for bear markets.
On 12/28/16 there were several short term factors that suggested a rally, the SPX opened up and the rally died in one minute.

The subsequent decline has brought the SPX down to support in the 2248 area.
The decline from the high at 2273.80 looks like a nearly complete impulse wave.
The latter part appears to be forming an Ending Diagonal Triangle. If so the maximum downside is at SPX 2247.30 a break below this level will open the door for more downside - a 20 point drop today could be possible.

Assuming the SPX bottoms in the 2249-2248 area the next rally would probably be another wave "two" up. Wave "twos" usually retrace about .618 of wave "ones" in this case around SPX 2263 - 2266. If there's a rally it could last one to two trading days.

happy new year dear :)
markrivest tipua411
Hi @tipua411,

Happy New Year to you.

From where you have (1) at 2248 I see a rising wedge of threes up to (2) at 2274, and if so is likely a B wave.

If the drop from 2277 to (1) was a three wave affair, followed by a rising wedge B, then the final drop from 2274 might be expected to be a C wave. C=A at 2245 which is where the market finished today, making the move a possible complete ABC.

Just an alternative interpretation.

kunsan kunsan
Oh, I should have added that if 2245 breaks I see the next stopping point at 2238 but an eventual low at 2227 where C=1.618.

I mentioned the Bradley date of December 29th (give or take a day or two). I wonder now if the rally to 2274 on December 28th was the Bradley peak (almost a retest of the high), in which case the current decline (whatever combination it forms) might be expected to form a low of sorts on or around the next Bradley date of January 8th. Not reliable, but at least a guide.

You have done very well to call the top from 2277. I missed that, and I'm still rather confused by it because it didn't match any of the targets I'd calculated. Still, that's markets.
Hi @kunsan,

Some times markets can start big move up or down on the first trading day of the year,
I think there could be a decisive move up or down on 1/3/17.

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