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Goldman Sachs Unexpectedly Boosts S&P 500 Price Target ( SPY )
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June 28, 2017 6:05am NYSE:SPY
Now, “unexpectedly” with stocks finally cracking with some violent moves in the tech sector after repeated warnings by top Fed bankers that stock “valuations are too rich”, moments ago Kostin just raised Goldman’s year end price target from 2,300 to 2,400. “reflecting a 1% decline over the next six months.”
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Finally, this is what the revision in EPS outlook means to the S&P , or how Goldman goalseeked its 100 points S&P price target increase from 2,300 to 2,400:
We continue to expect that solid S&P 500 growth will be offset by a contraction in the forward P/E multiple. Concurrent with our upward EPS revisions, we lift our year-end 2017 price target to 2400 from 2300 previously. We also increase our 2018 and 2019 S&P 500 price targets by 100 points each year to 2500 and 2600, respectively. Accelerating , rising interest rates, and stretched valuations relative to history will weigh on valuation and lead to a decline in the forward P/E from 18.1x currently to 17.3x in 2017 and 17.1x in 2018. Our year-end 2017 target suggests a slight 1% decline in price, which would rank as a 27th percentile six-month return since 1975. Downside risks include a more hawkish Fed than priced in the market, higher-than-expected , and upcoming political uncertainty surrounding the federal debt ceiling. Looking further in the future, our price targets imply 4% annual price gains in 2018 and 2019 (6% annual total return including dividends).