iamthewolf

SP500: Navigating Volatility - Butterfly supplement to EWT Post

SP:SPX   Der S&P 500 Index
My weekly Elliott Wave post received an interesting comment/question about how Wave 4 may unfold. I shared my thoughts there, but thought an illustration would help, too.

For corrective patterns I like to supplement my Elliott Wave analysis with Harmonic patterns . For those unfamiliar, it is guesswork, but a guide to understanding how ups/downs unfold.

So what to make of Wave 4 correction in SP500? Well, using xabcd is my "go to" approach. For now I expect a standard "xa as the move from 2573 down to 2533. From there the Friday 2/9 bounce from 200d sma starts "ab" projected to 2750 area. A re-test of the 2533 low carries lower, but I expect the 200d sma (or slightly higher) to hold. From there a rise to new ATH             gets launched, consistent with a start of Wave 5. The Butterfly estimate fits within wider trend lines (red) reflected in my Elliott Wave post.

Will it happen? Well, you gotta have a plan and then adapt from there once the market weighs in.
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