A further sell-off is possible even if it cannot be ruled out that the correction may already have reached its low by 23 March 2020 and that the Alternative (IV) has already been completed there. This would mean that the next bull market is already running. But at the moment I expect another sell-off before a new bull market could start.
Agree, based on historic PEs, bear isn't over until they crush down around 10x ERs, still up too high.
IMO It's a sucker rally; short covering + MOMO/FOMO.
@SwingBGtrade, US GDP will be significantly lower than most people expect. The Wilshire 5000 with the 5000 largest companies alone will have to drop by 40% in order to price that in. This will happen faster than most people expect. So I think that the probability of selling out is much higher than 50/50.
HiasFiat
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I agree with your short-/mid term analysis, but in the long-term the bear party is just beginning, in my opinion:
StefanBode
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@HiasFiat,yes, this depends on the duration of the lockdown. If the lockdown is not released in the next 2 weeks, the economic damage is irreparable and the economy will not recover from it for the next 10 years and the sell off will continue for many years.
ttk100
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Oh and I think you do a terrific job. That´s what I meant.
@StefanBode, yes, esp. in the beginning. Need to switch and check again once in a while. So, tv doesnt kick you out for that? Oh well, you prob. just switch it in the top to DE before you post sth?
StefanBode
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@ttk100, I'm under Top 5 All-Time since 1 1/2 year.
IMO It's a sucker rally; short covering + MOMO/FOMO.