I have updated my last SPX chart and re-labelled the EW count which I now think better fits the current wave structure. It is possible that SPX has completed this cycle with an ending diagonal as shown and a double top? Momentum & RSI have both diverged strongly and both short and long term trendlines have been hit! This coming week should be very interesting. Good Luck
@Geofftv1 Do you need to move the location of your point circle-5, now that SPX has closed above 2600 on Nov 24, 2017, although given that it was a Thanksgiving week with little selling pressure?
Teich50
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@Geofftv1 : what's your target for the next two weeks? 2480 to 2520? Thanks.
The_Unwind
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S+P has been above its 10 DAY Moving Average
every day.... since Mid August 2017 at 2450, a remarkable bull ru.n
Double Top at 2588.20 "could" be a sign of a pending reversal. This weeks trading will be telling.
It will take a break of the 10 Day Moving Average currently at 2572.79 and rising, to put the first crack in the Bull trend in the S+P.
THE_UNWIND
Geofftv1
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@The_Unwind, Agreed, although may own funds are in the UK FTSE I find this bull run in the US indices fascinating.
I read some information recently that even the permabears have gone bullish and the ratio is now 4.4 bulls to every bear, a 30 year record.
Also the amount of cash that fund and pension mangers have is at record lows so I do not know where the money is going to come from to
drive the market higher? If I am correct and the DOW is in an extended five the 800-900 point possible correction may be the first crack?
For now I monitor the EW structure to gain insight of possible moves.
The most recent Investors Intelligence Survey measuring sentiment
of investors towards the US Stock market
shows 63% Bulls and only 14% Bears
the highest differential of Bulls to Bears,
since just before..... the Stock Market Crash of Oct 1987.
THE_UNWIND
Geofftv1
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@The_Unwind, i subscrobe to EWI and they have shown many similar statistics. I also note that European Junk bonds are now priced higher than US treasuries for lower yields! Unbelievable.
Good work on your Elliott wave count. Most of the time rising Ending Diagonal Triangles have a throw over of the upper trend line.
I have three Fibonacci price targets for a turn in the SPX 2602- 2603 area.
I count what you have labeled as wave (1) topping at 2454.77, the peak just prior to your top, this is 37.42 points from the EDT point of origin at 2417.35.
37.42 x 1.618 = 60.54 add this to what you labeled as wave (4) at 2541.60 and it targets 2602.14
Within the EDT wave "i "= 36.69 add this to wave "iv" of the EDT at 2566.17 it targets 2602.86.
My third calculation comes from the SPX daily chart. Going back to the initial wave "one" up from the bottom made in February 2016 at SPX 1810.
Normally when measuring waves in a structure that has had a large percentage gain you want to use logarithmic scale.
But sometime arithmetic scale will work on large percentage gain structures.
The Orthodox high of the first wave up from SPX 1810 is the April high at 2111.05, this is 300.95 points above the 1810.10 bottom.
300.95 x .618 = 185.98
Wave "four" of the entire bull market from February 2016 appears to be the August 21, 2017 SPX bottom at 2417.35.
2417.35 + 185.98 targets SPX 2603.33
Three Fibonacci points in a tight cluster is very powerful resistance.
I think there is a very good chance the SPX early on November 6, 2017 could reach 2602-2603 and complete the bull move from February 2016.
Mark
Geofftv1
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@markrivest, Thanks for the feedback, I think we are both in the same thought process that major top is imminent. My original chart suggested a top if around 2610. This may still cone to fruition if my suggested top is in fact a wave 3 top with another wave up to go. I Have looks at the wave structure for this final minor wave at low timescales and fitted in common fib ratios which suggest my new top of 2588. In addition the topbtrend line has been hit about 4 times but as you suggest there may be a final throw over. I enjoy your posts and is is great to see we all have near but different views on the EW structure.
I've just done a complete review of all my US stock market momentum indicators. They are all mind boggling bearish.
I not pounding the table on SPX 2602-2603. A top could be in place as of 11/3/17.
11/6/17 could be a very important day.
SPX 2544 is very important support. A break below 2544 could have very bearish implications.