quantguy
Long

Snapchat IPO: Day 2

NYSE:SNAP   SNAP INC
Since this was a high volatility event, I actually drew the following analysis on a one minute chart, but Tradingview won't let me post the idea unless it is on a 15 minute chart or greater, so please excuse the coarseness.

First, regarding the Fibonacci levels, the most important thing you can do is anchor them properly, which is as much an art as a science. I've chosen the open, and first relative high as the anchor points. The first relative high is the point at which the price first pauses, and the 'sickle' shape starts to form.

Notice how I set my 50% fibonacci level at this point, instead of the 100%. This is because the sickle pattern is in the process of forming and we don't yet have hindsight as to where the apex is. If we *assume* the 50% level is at the first retracement in the pattern, it is usually pretty accurate in predicting where the apex will be: at 0.618, or 0.786.

Next, take a look at the indicators. Red = short term momentum, purple = medium term momentum, and blue = longest term momentum, to sum it up in a very crude way.

It's interesting to note that short term momentum actually arced down, indicating there was a lot of selling. This confirms what I had thought, that the insiders were selling off and taking profits from their buy at $17, for a 41% profit. Not bad for a couple hour's worth of work.

The interplay between short term momentum and long term momentum (purple and blue, respectively) give you a feel for retracements. That is, when the purple dips, but blue is still strong, the trend is still in place, but the pressure has let up. Notice how blue still remains high, despite purple dropping toward the end of the graph? This tells me that overall, buying pressure picked up throughout the day as we noticed as those 200million shares almost got entirely gobbled up. But the fact that price diverged from long term momentum toward the end of the day leads me to suspect a rally today, even perhaps a gap.
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