Hello guys, first of all thank for those who check my first TA (BRD/BTC).
I will try to publish other trade in the coming days. In order to remain very clear on my objective, I will siwtch the tag from Analysis to Educational.
Indeed, and as I said in my first post, my current objective is to practice my technical analysis, and share with you. Every comment will be welcome, as I just started in this exercise and I have a lot to learn from this community !
To come back to the present analysis : POE/BTC, 4 hours chart !
According to the chart, we can see a horizontal triangle form with support line (green) and the resitance line (red). It seems that we are coming slowly to the end of the triangle, which means the end of the actual trend. Additionaly, we can see that we will soon reach the last point of the waves, E.
RSI chart indicate that we are moving towards the support line. We should normaly bounce from it, arround the point E. From that, it will depend on the volume that will come in this trade. We can see that the volume was continuously decreasing since end of 2017. It give some room for incoming volume, which will be necessary if we want to break the triangle with strengh.
I will monitor this trade until we reach out the end of the triangle. It will be very interesting for myself, and I hope for you, to see if my TA is good on this one ! I will also try to bring some information about POE, which, from my actual knowledge, seems very promising !
Disclaimer : This is not an investment advice, keep that in mind while reading this please !
Thank you very much for your time, and for any comment/feedback you would give me on this one !
Thank you for the analysis. I see that you are not using any ema lines,i think it might be helpful to see if we will really complete the wave E or make a jump prior as it is not uncommon as well. What do you think?
Atoxal
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@retiringsoon1, here you have a snapshot of the MACD on the 2 hour chart :
From what I know, and again I have very little experience in this type of analysis, we see that the MACD (in blue) is just crossing his signal line (in red), indicating that the price will likely continue to decrease towards point E.
If you look at the same indicator with the 4 hours chart, the MACD seems also to come closer to his signal line. We will have to check during the day and tommorow how the price will react, but I do not see it jump towards the resistance line for now
Anyway, thank you very much for the comment, it was excactly what I was looking for by doing this type of post !
darkandblue
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@Atoxal, thank you for the reply. frankly speaking, the price gap between where weare now and E is ignorable compared to the potential; hence, my comment was also for educational purposes.
The issue with MACD is that it is following the price and not other way around. Look at the daily BTC for example. MACD was about to turn positive yesterday (it was at the crossing). Then the price dropped so did the MACD and been stalling since then.
The reason I mentioned EMA's is because they represent potential support and resistance levels. For example, we are being supported by the 50EMA right now on the 4h chart. here is the screenshot
same support on the hourly
Atoxal
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@retiringsoon1, Thank you for those insights ! If I understand correctly, the 50EMA is represent by the orange dot curve in your chart ?
So one of the possible scenario would be to bounce from this potential support, without reaching point E, directly towards the resistance line ?
darkandblue
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@Atoxal, yes, the orange is 50EMA and red is 200EMA.
The end of ABCDE wave is quite tricky as there is an expectation building up. coincidentally (or not), this week is full of fundamental catalysts reddit.com/r/poetproject/comments/7tlly8/poe_this_coming_week/) so the people are waiting and often jump in prior to the completion of the full pattern.
it might very well go to E as well. that is why it might be good to ladder the buy orders.
Another way to determine is to count the subwaves but it is too micro for my taste :)
Atoxal
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@retiringsoon1, thank you again for the knowledge ! I hope other people will find this post rewarding, considering its educational purpose of this post !
I will keep an eye on this trade and on the news coming !
Look forward to further discuss TA analysis with you sir !