Johanes
Long

NZD/USD HEADING FOR 0.7900 IN MEDIUM-TERM

FX_IDC:NZDUSD   Neuseeländischer Dollar / US-Dollar
16/07/2017

The assessment, measurement and valuation on the NZD/USD’s long-term exchange rate target zone confirms for the pair to turn to upward direction. Medium-term exchange rate target zone interior the long-term exchange rate target zone also already aligned to upward (turned) and at such, NZD/USD will move to upward in medium to long-term.

The previous medium-term exchange rate target zone managed by RBNZ and FED about 14 % (0.6250/0.7350) for about 1100 PIPs and narrower than global monetarists’ consensus for 15 % to maintain the economic and financial stability. After visiting the upper medium-term band 0.7350, the pair pressured to central band/central parity and defended and aligned back to upward at 0.6800 as the new lower medium-term band.

Based on the current medium-term band, the NZD/USD will move to upward by visiting the level of 0.7900 in medium-term. Accordingly, long/buy on the new exchange rate target zone is recommendable. Long/buy from the lower to the upper bands of their daily, weekly, monthly and short-term will be updated in this analysis. Short/sell from the upper to the lower bands not recommendable due to possible risk at current movement of medum-term to upward direction.
Kommentar: 17/07/2017

NZD/USD will be pressured to downward prior to resume to move to upward to follow her upward medium-term exchange rate target zone directional movement. The downward pressure could be down to lower daily band or lower weekly band to be assessed and measured by next week. The measured average weighted rates at lower band with NZD/JPY and CHF and the equivalent average weighted rates at upper band with EUR/NZD represent the turning points/entry rates to resume to long/buy NZD/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/CHF and to short/sell EUR/NZD. At such, the medium-term exchange rate target zone could be targeted by high frequency trading of the daily, weekly and monthly bands for larger profit (repeating movements).
Kommentar: The NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and NZD/CHF are expected to reach their average weighted rates at lower band by tomorrow to resume to long/buy the pairs. At the same time, the EUR/NZD to reach her equivalent average weighted rate at upper band to resume to sell/short inline to the medium-term exchange rate target zone directional movement.
Kommentar: 18/07/2017

LONG NZDUSD AT 0.7260/0.7280 STOP LOSS 0.7200 TP. 150/200 PIPS
LONG NZDJPY AT 81.80/81.95 STOP LOSS 80.30 TP. 150/200 PIPS
LONG NZDCHF AT 0.6990/0.6720 STOP LOSS 0.6850 TP. 150/200 PIPS
SHORT EUR/NZD AT 0.5800/0.5815 STOP LOSS 0.5900 TP. 250/350 PIPS
Kommentar: 19/07/2017

NZD moves as expected
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