The NIFTY50 booked it`s largests decline since October 2016. From it`s High @10137.85 it dropped to 9710.85 yesterday and booked a loss of 427 Points. This level is the .382 RT from 9075 to 10137.85! Also Traders create a "bearish Engulfing" Candle at weekly Chart which implies more decline still ahead. Normally a Candle like this means we`re in corrective mode for the next 2-3 weeks. So if this happens a targetzone for the NIFTY50 is around 9400-9070 area! The first targetzone represents the Wave 4 Low from the last swing up and second target represents the Wave 4 low on one lesser degree! At latest at this point I see a Wave 2 (Circle) low and a Market reversal. This count is invalid at 8968.70, the Wave 1 (Minor) high! If this pricelevel is touched another pattern is on the move.
All India Indexes I still observe shows reversal Candles on a weekly basis, including the Small Cap Index, the NIFTY200 and the Ishares S&P India NIFTY50 Index Fund! By observing Indicators/Oscillators the (14) dropped from it`s high level at ~80 Level last week back into neutral ranges, but still declining!
On a Daily view the NIFTY200 shows a possible reversal Candle, an "Inverted Hammer"! Not textbook like but it is possible to interpret this at this way. If this is the case we have to look for a Countertrend move to ~9840 -9910 Zone for Monday to Tuesday, which is the level on the Wave 4 decline from Wave "c" and the .382 RT of complete decline from 10137.85!
One more Indicator to watch is the VIX on the NIFTY50 which made it`s low at 10.37 at the first week of July. Since then the VIX pushes higher, closing the week at 15.20, it`s highest close since 2017 January 23! Simultaneously VIX around the World leading Indexes jump too, like The VIX CBOE and the German "VDAX New". So in my view this is just a first shoot, more trouble still to come in the next weeks and month!
Back to NIFTY! Nothing will decline forever like nothing will raise ever. If Mondays trading session is able to bring back Buyers to the Tradingfloor and trade the Index back to the named Targetzones this will just be a Countertrend push. In my view the trend to the next days and maybe weeks is focused to the downside. If the High at 10137.85 in NIFTY50 is topped the odds are too favor that the correction is done.
Much depends on it what the guy at White House will do. And this is not clear right now.
One of my thoughts! As long as the music is playing all dancers are on the floor and have fun. Once the music stop, you need a chair to sit down. If you miss that chair it could be hard for those how miss one. Be prepaired for an unexpected case and keep greed from your trading decision!! Like "an apple a day, keeps the doctor away" a "put just at right time keeps fear from your mind"!
Have a great weekend
Note!---> This Analysis can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!!