In my last idea I sugggested try to get in the trade somehow because the consolidation is over sooner or later and we are breaking out.
Though we couldn't catch the exact bottom and the position got risky as we broke down of the range all who were able to hold through the panic are in profit today. There was an undercut low with a false breakdown of the range but today it just seems it was a final shakeout .

My only concern : is that possible we had a mild ICL? Triangles and ranges are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. We have to assume that the ICL is behind us on the 1st of November. We broke out of the range last week Thursday and the next resistance ahead of us at 3.161$.
When a multi month consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought conditions or wait for the never coming pullback. I still got many messages how to enter into a NatGas or UGAZ trade right now.
It's really hard to help when the train is leaving the station. We entered early and had to bear a drawdawn where price seemed to go much lower. Contrarians didn't help us to hold the position, too... But it was still easier to enter early than to enter a position at the exact bottom. I saw a few people below my post who entered near to the exact bottom or added to the position at the lows. You can still check who had the balls to enter there and also post in real time .
But the hardest part is just coming in the following weeks. Sit tight and let the winners run. It doesn't matter if you caught the exact bottom or not. The big money will be in the uptrend in the next 2 month.

I still think that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows . The pattern has the characteristic of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.( Volume is supporting the accumulation)

I set the 200 SMA on the chart. We might or might not have a pullback to the 200 SMA from the next resistance level before breaking higher.
Last year the seasonal rally was relentless. There was not much of a pullback. Though the ICL a few days ago was not that deep like last year: the consolidation was long enough to have a big rally into year end. RSI is already overbought so it's possible we will have a pullback, but it can also run for weeks in the overbought territory and before the daily cycle tops it will print an RSI divergence with higher high in the price. MACD still has a long way to run.

LONG follow through idea. We are long from 2.855.

We traded successfully last year's winter rally:

Kommentar: All who want add or enter natgas/ugaz I think the time is coming today or tomorrow.
Watch natgas:
Kommentar: I see an interesting pattern evolving here:
Kommentar: Natty is producing interesting things...
Kommentar: We might be done with the pullback...
I gave a possible entry yesterday for the ones at the sidelines.
Kommentar: I like today's close...
It was the 9th day above the 200 SMA. The chances are high
we are bouncing tomorrow or Monday.
Kommentar: It seems we are building a base here.
Kommentar: Lost the 200 SMA today.
We did this on low volume and still above the 400 EMA. The 400 EMA was very important during the last 1-1.5 year. (red arrows)We bounced many times from there. It still can be a steep flag though.
Kommentar: Sorry 400 MA...
If we are reversing we need to do it in 2-3 days with a close above the 400 MA.
Kommentar: RSI is getting oversold also.
Kommentar: On the weekly basis we are just testing back the apex of the triangle.
And the RSI is at the 50 line... The weekly 200 MA was to hard to break it through we turned down from there again.
Kommentar: ... and the volume is low.
Kommentar: Pullback volume.
Kommentar: Looks like a good start.
Contrarians must be kicking themselves.
At least we know who sold at the exact bottom last Friday.
I was holding my longs.
Kommentar: I guess UGAZ will be up hard Monday.
Maybe 15-20%.
Kommentar: When the market moves in our favor noone is posting. Interesting.
Kommentar: Adding to the position here.
Kommentar: If we negate all of yesterday losses it’s going to be very bullish.
Kommentar: We are almost there. 1 or 2 days and the bottom is in.
We wil get a good rally after this drop.
Kommentar: WE had quite the similar story with erx a few months ago.
Kommentar: Looks great so far. Hopefully USA will be a buyer today... not a seller again
Kommentar: Gap again.... and a gap close.
Have we just picked up Wizard Watsonzou at the gap close???
I'm sure we will get know if he sells again.
Kommentar: I just realized that the earlier idea where to buy this was perfect.
I just didn't have the patience for a perfect entry:
Kommentar: We just sliced through the 200 SMA.
Will be testing the May -Nov highs again this week.
If the intermediate low is in we might have the same rally we had in the green rectangle last November.
Kommentar: There's an interesting question from tbuckle below.
RSI just reaching overbought. After the previos intermediate low price stayed overbought for a long time. I highlighted by a red vertical ine where price was when we got overbought.... Price can run for weeks from here.
Kommentar: We can easily test back 3,85 in January. If we break out of this 1 year consolidation and the cold weather continues in the states the breakout will be huge.
Kommentar: Breakout from the channel. Holding the long position.
Kommentar: And the breakout continues after the back test of the trendline
Kommentar: Is there anyone still with me here?
Kommentar: I’m going to post a long idea soon. If someone wants to enter long I think this is the time.
Kommentar: Soon=today
Any updates on NatGas?
@barryknabe, I think it's bottomed.
Keeping up to date to take trade
one more down.....i still wait.
Markets are closed in the US on Monday because of presidents day. The Russians will be happy to hear that. Maybe the market makers will make a move on low volume. I'm still on the side.
I bought it last Friday - it didnt move at all this week...i mean not a bit..avg cost 52.90/share for 7k. Let's nail this. My thing is if it doesn't break $2.50 - I will be holding if not..i should get the hell out...
+1 Antworten
steveheaven79 steveheaven79
@steveheaven79, I think i got in at good support zone but at this point i think everyone else is also looking at this thing here as I am looking at it.
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