I think most of you who were trading Natty in the last few months had mentioned the title at least once or twice. It's toying with us. So there are 2 options : 1. Get out and find some other vehicle. 2. Try to trade it somehow because the consolidation will be over sooner or later. Those who follow me for a while know which pill I have chosen.
At the last NatGas idea I suggested a buying at or before 9/11 based on the cycles. For a few days it looked good but after a breakout of the triangle we broke down from the triangle. Triangles are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles. Most probably we printed the ICL on the 4th of August and the 9th of October was a the new intermediate cycle's first daily cycle low. When the triangle breaks up and down in a few days the pattern becomes almost impossible to trade.
I assume that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows and day after day it's losing the chance to break lower. This pattern is a sign of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.(Volume is supporting the accumulation idea) When? Maybe tomorrow , maybe next week, maybe only January. But when a consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought condition or wait for the never coming pullback.
So my suggestion is here to have some kind of starting position. What I think even if we are breaking down we will not break below 2.387$. 2.387$ is 17% lower than today's price . So all who takes this trade will have to prepare for one more drawdown .There might or might not be a drawdown but if it comes I will be buying there also.
The break above the 200 SMA will be an important sign that the party is starting. Notice how the 200 SMA stopped the rally again and again. The next significant breakout above it will hold.
Instead of watching the triangle I will watch the above range from today.
I find your charts and analysis very interesting. I'd be interested in hearing any new thoughts since your last post, especially given the 2.6% pop we have here overnight.
chartwatchers
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@RHTrading, we are heading to the top of the range. If we break out the bounce will be big.
olegleo
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It seems that gas printed reverse candle
wien
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@chartwatchers Hi, I need your help. Could you please update your view now? I'm not sure if I should keep my stocks or not..... thanks a lot in advance!
bertcoin
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Adding more at this retest of the channel bottom....
leonarddavidson60
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Thanks for an update..agree 100%..we may have a different type of rally this winter..but we ll have a rally sooner or later..today's price pullback is a good buying opportunity..added a lot to my position..Good luck to all UGAZ traders!!
bertcoin
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I'm starting a small position here at 2.77, the bottom of the accumulation channel with RSI oversold. Natty doesn't seem to stay oversold very long in this mode.
FFMEO
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Natty went down on good inventory report with strong volume. What will we get at the end of the day? Let's see.