I would like to start with the indicators here.
First of all the Slow Stochastic. Every time in the last 3 years when the StowStoch printed a flat bottom at the oversold levels it was followed by a strong rally in NatGas prices. Today the situation is the same : we have a flat bottom again.
MACD is also crossing over after the extreme oversold levels and RSI already left the extremes.
Last year's consolidation ruined the cycle count a bit. We clearly had an ICL on the 9th Nov 2016 but the next daily cycle dropped too much : on the 22th Feb 2017 we almost dropped to the ICL level at 2.387. It's still not crystal clear : was the 2017.02.22 low a DCL or an ICL of a very short cycle? This way or the other it was an important sign that NatGas was not ready to print an ultimate rally : we had a frustrating consolidation in 2017.
The consolidations are pretty hard to trade if you are waiting for a strong trending rally. Every pattern is evolving into a new one.
First we had a triangle, the triangle evolved into a range , the range broke down and later evolved into declining channel etc etc.
Based on the indicators and price action I think Natgas is ready to rally again. I'm not sure it will be able to break out of the consolidation though... 20th Dec 2017 most probably was an ICL. If that is the case we mustn't drop below that level for a few weeks/months. The perfect scenario would have been to touch the trendline without taking out the lows of December 2017. I was waiting for this but it never happened.
So we will enter here where indicators are clearly giving the reversal signs...
My suggestion is to enter 15-20% margin impact here . If we tag the trendline in the following few days you can double the position.
***
First of all the Slow Stochastic. Every time in the last 3 years when the StowStoch printed a flat bottom at the oversold levels it was followed by a strong rally in NatGas prices. Today the situation is the same : we have a flat bottom again.
MACD is also crossing over after the extreme oversold levels and RSI already left the extremes.
Last year's consolidation ruined the cycle count a bit. We clearly had an ICL on the 9th Nov 2016 but the next daily cycle dropped too much : on the 22th Feb 2017 we almost dropped to the ICL level at 2.387. It's still not crystal clear : was the 2017.02.22 low a DCL or an ICL of a very short cycle? This way or the other it was an important sign that NatGas was not ready to print an ultimate rally : we had a frustrating consolidation in 2017.
The consolidations are pretty hard to trade if you are waiting for a strong trending rally. Every pattern is evolving into a new one.
First we had a triangle, the triangle evolved into a range , the range broke down and later evolved into declining channel etc etc.
Based on the indicators and price action I think Natgas is ready to rally again. I'm not sure it will be able to break out of the consolidation though... 20th Dec 2017 most probably was an ICL. If that is the case we mustn't drop below that level for a few weeks/months. The perfect scenario would have been to touch the trendline without taking out the lows of December 2017. I was waiting for this but it never happened.
So we will enter here where indicators are clearly giving the reversal signs...
My suggestion is to enter 15-20% margin impact here . If we tag the trendline in the following few days you can double the position.
***
Kommentar:
Waiting for price to break sbove the 100 SMA
Kommentar:
The blue rectangles are the summer rallies. NatGas can rally in the summer and drop in the winter.
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen:
As we close enough to the resistance I'm closing this long position.
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen
