Many analysts and investors are shouting for a bear market in 2019.
However, this indicator says otherwise.
For the past 4 occurrences, the S&P bounced and rallied higher.
It happened in 2002, 2009, 2011 and 2016.
Will history repeat itself again in 2019?
We are seeing a lot of interesting phenomenon from a macro analysis perspective going into 2019.
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*Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach.
The sharing of this idea is neither necessarily indicative of nor a guarantee of future performance or success.
All major indices have topped and are in a free fall. Bear markets can take a long time (2 to 3 years or more) to develop and does not happen overnight. 2020 and 2021 are critical turning points and we are going to see something big! Benner-Fibonacci cycle points to 2021 as a major turning point! Let's see how this all plays.
jlarlee2425
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What is this nonsense?! 2002 and 2009 were both bottoms following major bear markets. 2009 even made lower lows than what we had seen in the previous bear market after the Dot-Com Bubble! Of course and by definition there is always a bounce at some point, but to say that this means we didn't see a bear market in those instances or won't see one now is in my opinion ludicrous...
KarYong
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@jlarlee2425, u have your view, but I'm not saying we are not going to see a bear market; neither am I saying the market will rally now. What I'm sharing here is just a pattern that happened in the past and might happen again in the near future :)