FTSE/Mib: Watch this Index closely!

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The "Renzi" Referendum in Italy is comming soon - but look how the Italian Stockmarket "runs": There are no lower lows until today. Matteo Renzi ist going to loose this upcomming Referundum next Sunday (Dec. 4th 2016). The predictions are all same: Italian banks will follow up with bancruptcy, Italia will first leave the Euro and the European Union later.

But - can you read this in this chart?

In the month bevor you see mutch more downside risk and downside momentum than today, only few days before the voting. Maybe you also be aware that hedgefunds are betting against Italian Bonds and Stocks. Thisfore you might expect mutch more downside volatility but it isn´t there.
My reading for this market is more bullish than bearish . I am looking today for a "neutral" bias but will change it anytime to "bullish" if there is no downnside momentum before or after the voting next sunday.
Nov 28
Trade ist aktiv: Still "neutral" ...

but watching still wathcing closely this market.

To give you an idea what ist driving Europes Emotions about this upcomming referendum try to read the information provided by the largest German News Channel Network:

The lates news from today is saying that Investors are really scared about the upcomming Italien Referendum next Sunday. This Event will have a large impact on the German DAX because Investors highly expected to be dissapointed.

As anybody might know: The polls are clear. Matteo Renzi is going to loose next Sunday and resign immediately as he said bevor.

What Suprise might this voting have if the result is now almost known in advance?
Nov 28
Trade ist aktiv: Watch this closely

Read: Investors pulling capital out of Italy ahead of referendum
Nov 28
Trade ist aktiv: Investors pulling money out of Italy

First: Pls. read from the link above ....

Second: Pls read this ...

Recent polls show growing opposition to Italy’s proposed reforms. A defeat of the referendum would support the view that voters world-wide are increasingly in an antiestablishment mood, as illustrated by the U.K.’s vote in June to leave the European Union, or Brexit, and the win by this month by businessman Donald Trump over former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.

“Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform is Italy’s Brexit moment and a ‘no’ vote would send tremendous shock waves through the markets and the banking system,” wrote Neil Wilson, senior market analyst, at ETX Capital, on Monday.

Next: Stockmarkets work like this? You know what will happen on next sunday. Hedgefonds are shorting the Italien Banks heavily ---> now. If you shorting Italy now means that you are shorting the facts everyone knows allready and you are not shorting any "rumors". If on Sunday now the "facts" are delivered once more - who will continue sellling an who needs to take profit in his shortselling to avoid losses and what is going to happen than?

I am waiting now for one or two more sell offs in the Italien Stockmarket wich means the "Renzi" Crash happens bevor the Referendum will start. I am really wondering how this might end by next week. The Brexit was followed by a crash - and any Stockmarket goes higher again. The US-Election was followed by an over night crash and stockmarkets recover. This time there is sell off bevor a similar voting also called "Brexit 2.0" because any investor wants to be more smart than both times before.
Nov 28
Trade ist aktiv: Believe it or not: CNBC ---> Comeback Contenders, right now.

Recomended: Italy, Russia, Turkey ETF`s

As we all know whatever is told on CNBC we need to watch this cautiously. It is a completely diffent view if you read the following news and listen than to people who believe that Italy is a buyin opportunitiy. Only one side can be right finally.
Read this: Even FT and Zerohedge declaring the upcomming bankruptcy for 8-11 Banks. The one and only reason? PM Matteo Renzi will resign. Even this might happens - what happens to Greek Banks after the left wing populist party "Syriza" tooks over power.

Up To Eight Italian Banks May Fail If Renzi Loses Referendum | Zero ..
Nov 29
Kommentar: Stop shorting Europe now.

If you are a medium to short term Investor stop shorting European Stockmarkets. You can read in any german newspaper or news web site that by monday the next "crash" is to come. You can feel that "fear" is real and people absolutely believe in this.
Nov 29
Kommentar: FTSE/Mib: The Italian Stockmarket is rising by more than 255 points or 1.6 %.
Guess wich Stockmarket is outperforming all over Europe ...

... it is nothing else than italian stockmarket.
Nov 29
Kommentar: Italian banks were among biggest advancers, rebounding from sharp losses in Monday’s action. The country’s banking gauge, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Sector Index IT8300, +3.23% , slumped 3.9% to a three-month low on Monday, but rose 2.4% in Tuesday’s action. Italy’s FTSE MIB index I945, +1.40% rose 0.8% to 16,343.89 on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.8% fall.
Nov 29
Kommentar: Source:

Italian banks were among biggest advancers, rebounding from sharp losses in Monday’s action. The country’s banking gauge, the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Sector Index IT8300, +3.23% , slumped 3.9% to a three-month low on Monday, but rose 2.4% in Tuesday’s action. Italy’s FTSE MIB index I945, +1.40% rose 0.8% to 16,343.89 on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.8% fall.
Nov 29
Nov 29
Kommentar: Watch this daily candle from today, November 29th!

The FTSE/Mib maybe is going to take a break before the meltdown might occur. But maybe all this Investors wich are betting against Italy might feel, that there is only limit space left for further declines and that they might starting to take profit now.

As we spoke about before: The polls are clear - Matteo Renzi will loose this referendum.

What we need to keep in mind even from Brexit than also from the US-Election:

Polls have been dramatically wrong. The only room for any suprise is that Matteo Renzi might win this election because the Italian people even do not want him anymore to be PM of Italy might be more scared about there bank savings and might give a diffrent vote on sunday from what they are telling in any poll before. I am not predicting that this might accour but the sentiment of european markets and retail investors are so badly negative that any positive news on sunday will send any european stockmarket rocket straight up.
Nov 29
Nov 29
Dec 08
Kommentar: Renzi? Who?

Do you remember Matteo Renzi and the completely break down of the Euro, the EU, the banks ....?

The Stockmarket doesn´t - and that´s for sure.

Watch this chart and see what happend in the last 9 Trading days. A new bull market is born same time US-Investors betting billions of US-Dollar on a Italy and EU to break down.

Dec 30
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
Dec 30
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen
good )!
Very nice job!
Again, you know I highly respect you and your trading ideas Harald. You deserve a platform way bigger than the current one. I have been following your comments since July 2016 and really enjoy your open style of presenting facts, which allows me to trust my gut and open trades myself that I feel comfortable with. Keep up the good work!
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