So, comparing this LTC bearmarket to the last one, we immediately notice the perfect logarithmic donwtrend, which in both cases stood for a long time, until it was broken. Back in 2014, LTC broke the resistance, everyone was getting bullish again, just to dump afterwards even below the resistance! The resistance should have acted as support, but the dump was so massive that it broke below. Just to rebound epicly, go sideways a few weeks, and then immediately start the epic halving pump.
We might see something very similar this time. LTC looking super bullish, everyone is like: WOOAAAAHHHH!!! LTC bull is back !!! Let's go all in LTC !!! 22 USD was the bottom, confirmed !!! I remember the same euphoric feelings back in 2014. However, I was a noob back then lol. I bought in too early.
So, what I think will happen is, we also break resistance, are in the process now of doing it. LTC might reach 50-55 USD in this pump without problems.
But then, as BTC prepares for the final dump of this bearmarket, LTC will of course follow. And Altcoins of course do what BTC does, but much more intense. So BTC goes to the 2000-2500 area, and LTC accordingly could go as low as 10 USD, maybe even 5 in a very extreme scenario, but only for a very very short time. Epic rebound follows immediately. And then we'll probably not long afterwards, go into the halving rally.
Why is it likely to happen again very similar? Because it would be a perfect entry for whales who want to make a nice profit. They enter at the low, and make a nice x5-10 profit with the immediate LTC halving pump. I for one, will not jump on the LTC bandwagon just yet, but patiently wait for another 6-10 weeks :)
But then it will be time to finally buy LTC again, I'm looking forward to it.
Kommentar
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And indeed, LTC is pretending to be strong. Oh, look at me, I'm LTC, I pushed through the log resistance !!! Yeah yeah, I was euphoric back in 2014 when that happened, but not now. Won't fall for that again XD
As XRP and all other alts, they will start dumping very hard, once BTC prepares for that final bottom at around 2300 USD, that I've been expecting since almost a year now.
Kommentar
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The fake breakout I was talking about could materialize with this latest dump. I see something like this happening:
The low will probably be lower than the low at 22 USD, but not much lower. Somewhere around 15 USD. LTC is bullisher than I thought in anticipation of the halving, and it might not go as low as I thought a year ago. So no 4 USD LTC again. But 15 is good enough for me:)
Nice analysis. My $0.02 opinion re. "When to finally re-enter LTC?":
Anyone who does not want to pour their money down the drain should wait before the daily MA120 has crossed the MA200. When will it be? Just look at the chart below.
So objectively considered, i.e. without impatience, greed, vivid imagination and wishful thinking -- we are still very far away from it… Just my opinion.
Don't fall for unfounded FOMO mass madness optimism too early once again. Take care!
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Good analysis. With your method however, you would enter the market too late for the halving pump, as we can see from the 2014 bearmarket bottom in LTC:
Actually, taking the cross of the MA120 and MA200 alone, you would have entered at the peak of the halving rally, which would have been a bad entry.
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Good morning, You misunderstood, I didn't say that the "method" was stepping in at exactly the time when the moving averages cross. The point is not to step in *before* they cross!
True to the principle "Better safe than sorry". ;-)
Now I leave it up to each one to work out the details of *when* to step in after they have crossed on their own.
If you look at the historical courses of BTC/USD, LTC/USD and others from the past, it's not that hard to spot, really. ;-)
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, To each his own method :) Relying on moving averages alone, yields imho an incomplete picture of the situation. It's as if only looking at RSI oder MACD. Yes, you can enter at some point after, but this essentially means getting in at higher prices. With LTC, it would have meant getting in at an average of 4 USD, the bottom having beein 1 USD. That's 4x higher.
My method is riskier, however, has a larger potential return of invest. Everyone must find a method with which he/she is comfortable with. That being said, a discussion is always welcome. Have a nice day :)
ReallyMe
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I could not agree more. Have a nice weekend, too. ;-)
ReallyMe
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FWIW, my current idea & "plan" regarding Litecoin
SebastianofMoon
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@ReallyMe, Thanks, yeah, according to your MA120/MA200 theory, this could still be a fake breakout. And I'm also suspecting it. I think BTC will start dumping soon and kill off the LTC rally. The way it did for example with the ETH rally in early 2018.
SpotTheBreakout
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Great analysis! We are due for a major drop, and I think it’s coming in the next 6-8 weeks like you said. I am patiently waiting, like one should.
SebastianofMoon
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@subodhmbahl, Thanks! Yes, patience is key in this market, because the entry difference is so huge, depending on when you enter, that can make a 2-3x difference in amount of coins one has ;)
Recluse82
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I don't think you will see lower ltc than previous low, for me looks like this time double bottom is not gonna occur and the pump has started, maybe thats why is different this time because everybody was expecting one more low and it's not gonna happen this time. Don't.get.me wrong but the chart symmetry was quite good so far until it broke out yesterday. Your trendline has different angle the capitulation phase happened already if you compare the similarity. I wish I was not right
Anyone who does not want to pour their money down the drain should wait before the daily MA120 has crossed the MA200. When will it be? Just look at the chart below.
So objectively considered, i.e. without impatience, greed, vivid imagination and wishful thinking -- we are still very far away from it… Just my opinion.
Don't fall for unfounded FOMO mass madness optimism too early once again. Take care!