The market can be irrational sometimes.
But watch big levels such as 22900 or 23400 level, once they are broken up "strongly", the sell idea is no longer valid.
So, the question is "what if" these levels are not broken up, Bear will do just fine.
P.S I am on Yen too, aka on jpy pairs in the longer term.
I have made it risk free now.
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