IVZ
has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high. Other possible low points for the suspected echo impulse, using fib levels, are 18.65, 18.93, 19.14, and 19.29. Pyramiding your buys using these levels should give a relatively low average position for long term growth, which can be sold off, probably during the year, for a profit to adjust the weight in the portfolio back to a reasonable level to meet your portfolio diversity goals. Despite the effort in averaging down and out, I do believe it is a worthy strategy to reap greater returns rather than buying once when it looks good.
The average price per book value for this stock is less than one and averages greater than 1.65, according to Yahoo. To reach equivalent value if book value remained constant, which it will not, the factor is 1.8x. Earnings are expected to rise, so book value itself will rise over time. Book value has risen 50% in the past ten years, so a 5 year price target given today's suspected low and a 1.2x oversold factor (because who sells at value?) will be 19.40*1.8*1.25*1.2 = $52.38 or about a 170% return on investment, plus another $6 in 5 year straight dividends at $0.30 per quarter.
Due to the volatility and bullish/bearish runs with bulls beating bears in the end, this makes a great swing trading opportunity. When the stock trends above 1.67% monthly or 0.38% weekly, the stock is performing greater than its exponential averages:
Average Exponential Monthly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(12*5))-1)*100 = 1.67%
Average Exponential Weekly (%) Growth: (2.7^(1/(365/7*5))-1)*100 = 0.38%
This is likely to occur now and less likely over the course of 5 years. Therefore, linear price increments may be more useful in determining rapid growth in earlier stages. In which case, when the stock trades above $0.55 a month or $0.13, the stock is performing better than its linear averages:
Average Monthly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*12) = $0.55
Average Weekly ($) Growth: (52.38-19.4)/(5*365/7) = $0.13
Right now, we are in a bit of a bull swing since Dec 24th, as with most (financial sector) stocks. There is some potential to ride this out for a while, so adjust your alerts to watch for the bear once it crosses down on the average expected growths. This stock has a tendency to go up in the early mornings around 10:00AM, so that would be your time to sell if the previous week was low and would not be your time to get hopeful.
Spiked down a lot quicker than expected and already recovered quite a bit. Still some room for it to take another hit since the volume is quieting down, but the trend will likely continue.