timwest
Long

Biotech's 40% Bear Market is Over

NASDAQ:IBB   ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX FUND
There is one useful way to determine when a trend is over and that is using a 50% "speedline" of a move.

The decline from $400 in $IBB, the IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index             Fund back in July 2015 and then tumbled 40% to $240 on February 9th             , 2016 and later retested $240 on June 27, 2016.

The mid-point of that decline is $320 and a line drawn from the top at $400 down through the $320 level on June 27th gives you a line that is now down below $275 and that line has been violated to the upside, retested and is turning back up again and THIS TIME it is with President Trump pushing for faster "time to market" in exchange for lower drug prices. Will the deal go through and will it make a difference? Time will tell.

For now, the Yellen-Bubble-popping bear market has been dramatic since August 2015 as it tumbled a whopping 40%.

But there might be signs of life here in Biotech Bubble land, even with fears of price gouging still lingering over these stocks .

For now: Average in over the next 2-3 months and see if this story pans out.

Tim

12:31AM EST February 2, 2017 280.42 last $IBB. Other symbols for Biotech $FBT, $XBI, $BBH
Kommentar: The obvious upper trendline violated this week and there is a reaction to that level here today 2/8/2017 (Wednesday). The rally in this leg reached well above the "Highest Low Trendline" that I prefer to use that gives a stronger insight into whether a trend is in place or not.

I am constructive about $IBB here on today's 2 point pullback. Add to positions here and on new highs and on each "average range advance".
Kommentar: Still very constructive chart formation. I added again to my position when it was down over a point today. 2/24/2017
Kommentar: IBB fell all the way back to the "TRUMP KEY LEVEL" from his "I will help drug companies push drugs through the FDA faster...
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
Do you expect a bounce off the level or a drop below to the next one?
Antworten
Very constructive here...I got back in on Friday near the lows luckily, as you pointed this one out again. Very promising outlook.
Cheers.
+1 Antworten
Excellent post as always Tim!
+1 Antworten
This is looking awesome.
+1 Antworten
Great thought... Plus they are trading at 11x Fwd EPS (for whatever that is worth) probably one of the lowest multiples in the market for a growth sector.
+1 Antworten
timwest Mertz74
@Mertz74, Excellent point about 11x's Fwd EPS. Incredible. If the companies that have been ripping off customers after jacking up prices 10-fold could somehow be removed from the analysis, then we could get a baseline PE. Either way, thank you.
+1 Antworten
Great chart Tim!
+1 Antworten
timwest IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, Thanks Ivan. I just re-read all of my comments here on Biotech from over a year ago and the "basing out" comments from last fall. I originally thought a 50% correction was coming over 5 years, but we got 40% in 1 year. Time will tell if we can LIFT off of this level that we have been sitting at for awhile.
Antworten
2use timwest
@timwest, I remember that chart! And that run. What i wonder is ...why not a same run in the same fashion? Biomed is a hot subject, we are developing things faster, and it does seem like a thing of the close future. Also if we speak patterns, it does resemble a similar pattern of a run up, correction, and a second leg up in the same ratio. We are expecting the same from the breaking tech like Tesla
Antworten
@2use, The group of stocks in this portfolio might not be the ones that have the next run-up. So, I'm always wary. The P/E analysis needs plenty of research too to confirm. If you get any research done in the sector, please share it with us here. Thanks @2use
Antworten
DE Deutsch
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Startseite Aktien-Screener Devisen Signal-Finder Kryptowährung Signal-Finder Wirtschaftskalender So funktioniert es! Chartmerkmale Hausregeln Moderatoren Webseite & Brokerlösungen Widgets Stock Charting Bibliothek Feature-Anfrage Blog & Nachrichten FAQ - Häufige Fragen & Antworten Hilfe & Wiki Twitter
Profil Profileinstellungen Konto und Abrechnung Meine Support Tickets Support kontaktieren Veröffentlichte Ideen Followers Ich folge Private Nachrichten Chat Abmelden