TVC:GOLD   GOLD CFD's (US$ / OZ)
Hi Guys,

normally I do not use the A/D indicator or Volume becuase I don't need them for my trading. I want simplicity. That's why I use RSI and two SMAs in addition to XP, news, events and patterns.


In this case A/D just confirms the strong bullish trend which is evident just by looking at price.

Volume seems to provide confirmation of the divergence in hights with RSI which may signify that 1453 may be a top and a reversal may be forthcoming.

However price has been supported above 1410 despite sentiment below 50 RSI line.

Considering actual price position within above framework and forthcoming FED meeting on Jul 30-31 please trade carefully.

IMHO, key factors that remains supportive for Gold (ref my post dated Jul 3rd - 4H chart) are:
1) Rising tensions in the Middle East;
2) Worries over a No-Deal Brexit;

A loose monetary policy by CBs , IMHO, is not supportive for the precious metal on the long term. However, since USD may suffer from a rate cut, Gold may benefit for a short run.

Finally please remember that Gold is considered a safe haven like JPY and that the moves of gold and USD/JPY are inversely correlated (108 for USD/JPY is a key level).

For additional infos about Gold please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post.

Depending on your strategies I hope all the above informations will be of help.

Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.

Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Jul 27
Kommentar: 2 charts are following. 4H and Daily. Please watch how 50SMA and RSI plays on both:
Jul 27
Kommentar: It may be a sell into ascending 50SMA in conjunction with FED meeting on july 30-31
Jul 27
Kommentar: Target could be 1380 if 1400 do not support.
Jul 29
Kommentar:
Jul 29
Kommentar: 4H pushed down by SMA
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 30
Kommentar:
Jul 31
Kommentar:
Jul 31
Kommentar: #Gold may be unfolding an #endingdiagonal into today's #FOMC meeting. If so, it may not be the right time yet to play #RSI divergence . Rising wedge or flag not sufficiently mature #IMHO for a #pullback.
I've been looking at this some more.
My target of 1570 is shooting too far. I do see 1475-ish tho. Before quite a long correction until we start climbing again.
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speedracer1234 speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, of course, the other option is to just drop from here
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cozzamara speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, Both options are valid but I am watching USD/JPY consolidating above 108 which IMHO is bearish for Gold since their moves are inversely correlated. However, such correlation have been "polluted" by high expectations for a 0,75 bps rate cut priced in at the beginning of June and resized after NFP and Powell's testimony to congress at the end of June.
Infact Gold run paused at 1440 on Jun 25th before NY FED Williams comments made it run again to 1453 on Jul 17th.
Market participants are pushing higher every time they see a rate cut on the horizon but IMHO their expectations have been misplaced.
BOE, ECB, BOJ are holding and FED will increase with lowest unemplyment ever and an economy booming? It does't make sense to me but everything is possibile. A 0,25bps cut is the max market can get at the moment IMHO. Such rate cut may well prompt another bull run higher than 1453 but I think it will be short lived unless FED support it with clear indications on additional hikes by the end of the year.
+1 Antworten
cozzamara speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, The divergence with RSI is visible to all participants but the way it will play is still unknown. The fact that such divergence is not producing any effect reinforce indeed your view that price is strongly supported above 1400 with bullish bias and may resume its run at any time. However, IMHO, if it loses support of the 20SMA on the daily chart, it may attack 1400 again before climbing back up.
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cozzamara speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, Good morning. I've been reading lots of ideas around and this is very interesting IMHO. Difficult to play though. I think you may be right in not playing RSI divergence for the time being. If this is an ending diagonal, there may be another run higher before pulling back.
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I wouldn't apply your RSI divergence in this situation.
Yes, we're either looking at an up-thrust and down. But I don't think so at all. Not with the strength we came up here with.
I think that 1453 touch was to tap the 7-year-old longs to get them out of the way for what's going to come.
I could be wrong so take my opinion with a grain of salt but I think we're bullish from here up until 1570 for my first TP.
Gold has just broken out of a major re-accumulation, why not complete the final 5 wave after this what very much has the look of re-accumulation phase.
And I just want to add that if this was an up-thrust, why hasn't there been any follow through south?

Thanks for your work, I'm reading and enjoying
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cozzamara speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, first of all thank you for sharing your view. Your comments are very well articulated and your scenario may well be a possibility. Why not...

I agree with you that there are a lot of elements to be bullish in the long term. Plus, as you correctly point out, the 5th is still missing. However IMHO the bottom of the 4th is still to be made and if the 2nd was a sideways correction, the 4th may well be a sharp one yet to find its bottom.

Forthcoming FOMC meeting will play a key role in Gold next move. Gold may run for an high before FED to drop like a stone after Powell's statement.
I would be very carefull in trading a 5th right now. I'll play the move if I find the opportunity but I would not enter long now unless it gets strong momentum above 1453.

Just some thoughts:

- last year, following FOMC meeting on Jul/Aug 31-1, Gold made a run for a low at 1160 (from 1224) on aggresive rate hike expectations. We are at the same point in time but a year later with opposite expactations for a rate cut.

- last year August candlestick was a drop of $64. If this year Gold does the same but in the opposite direction it may spike to 1517 (an extra $53 to get to $1570 would be too risky IMHO).

- at the moment July candlestick is a long legged doji but is not closed yet, as it will close right after the meeting of the FED.

Thank you again for you comments. Much appreciated :)
Antworten
@cozzamara, fantastic reply
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@cozzamara, so, now I've slept.
I said, I wouldn't use RSI in this situation. I don't use RSI but if I'd use it I'd use it for two different swings, not the beginning and end of a plateu. That's up to you tho, but consider.

Up-thrusts are great but they come with weakness in the background. None of which I can see. for Gold at this stage.
I have a quite aggressive entry at 1409 and SL at 1400. SL will be moved to BE once a reaction is seen from the 1409 area.

You're right that the 4th could be a sharper one...I've got nothing else to say there, sure we could see something like first an up-thrust and then a spring, sure, anything is always possible. That's why I love this.

I like your idea of taking a trade on strong momentum over 1453, that got me thinking.
I have Gold moving way higher over the years.
I don't know too much about fundamentals, I hope that it's all baked into the tape and there is where my focus is for better or worse.

Keep your analysis coming, thank you my friend.
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cozzamara speedracer1234
@speedracer1234, I love this platform because sometime I meet really nice people like you with whom I can share very interesting ideas and learn something new. I will definetly consider your advice. I had a look at your profile and I look forward to your next post. Thank you again for your comments and good luck with your trading. Thank you mate :)
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