1. Technical analysis:
- The minimum increase level for an Inverted H&S pattern has already reached.
- Polls have suggested that Macron will easily win the election since last week, this has already price in on DAX. It is basic knowledge that the investors will sell off for taking profit when some hopes become true. I don't understand why some people say that DAX will go higher if Macron wins. For myself, DAX will goes lower if Macron wins.
- VIX for global markets has recorded historical low at 9.8 recently. There are 19 times that the VIX has been in single digit since 1990's. It indicates that most investors are over optimistic, they make money easily by holding longs on indices and securities. Not many investors are holding shorts and they do not believe the trend can be reverse.
2. Political and Geographic analysis:
- If you study Economics, you'll certainly understand that Macron won the presidential election of France is actually a disaster for global markets.
3. Investors' Psychological analysis:
- I observed that there are more and more people become very greedy and over optimistic. Some people mentioned that "DAX has entered uncharted area and I guess it will go up to 16000". This is always a signal for trend reversal.
- The minimum increase level for an Inverted H&S pattern has already reached.
- Polls have suggested that Macron will easily win the election since last week, this has already price in on DAX. It is basic knowledge that the investors will sell off for taking profit when some hopes become true. I don't understand why some people say that DAX will go higher if Macron wins. For myself, DAX will goes lower if Macron wins.
- VIX for global markets has recorded historical low at 9.8 recently. There are 19 times that the VIX has been in single digit since 1990's. It indicates that most investors are over optimistic, they make money easily by holding longs on indices and securities. Not many investors are holding shorts and they do not believe the trend can be reverse.
2. Political and Geographic analysis:
- If you study Economics, you'll certainly understand that Macron won the presidential election of France is actually a disaster for global markets.
3. Investors' Psychological analysis:
- I observed that there are more and more people become very greedy and over optimistic. Some people mentioned that "DAX has entered uncharted area and I guess it will go up to 16000". This is always a signal for trend reversal.
Trade ist aktiv:
As expected.
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht:
I was the only trader here suggesting others to short at 12800, whereas most of the the traders suggested that it will go to 13000+ right after the Election. Almost 700 points profit for my futures. Time to close trade and go travel. Good luck all.