This is a UK (GBP): CPI and PPI Prediction (September 12, 2016): My economic-fundamental predictions for the UK CPI and PPI coming up are bullish. So, I am looking to buy the GBP for at least 20 pips or more, what ever show up on the charts. It could unfold into something greater. I don't know, but guess what? If you are LONG GBP from the bottom, then you can have more confidence to stay in with my predictions. I am also looking to go long again.
"A currency speculator makes money by forcing a country to face realities it would rather not face." - A FUNDAMENTAL CURRENCY TRADER
For two months, I have been staying on the sidelines in predicting the UK data. Last week I started again. There are still some missing elements. As I was doing my research, I notice in looking at the UK economy that the uncertainty in the economy has dissipated a little bit, but it is still there in the consumer. It SEEMS like UK is recovering, even from the Brexit. The weak pound that we traders help "donated" to in early August with success helped prices fall, which actually helped the economy. haha... So, we traders did a good job knocking down the pound.
Now, the CPI and PPI come out. What do I expect? I predict that it will be good, possibly better than expected. This prediction is based on a lack of a key data, but I am going with it for now, even though this data has been challenging. I'll take the risk.
RISK to TRADE: The US Dollar comes back into play on Thursday and sends everything else down. For now, buying the pound!
Kommentar
⋅
Further RISK to the prediction: UK prices DROPPED the most last month.... I do not think this will impact the prediction because of how the other data, I think, will mitigate this problem.
Kommentar
⋅
Be very careful with GBP.... the economic data is not all there, which is good. We can speculate the more.
Kommentar
⋅
Please see comments on UK data this morning. One of the risks to the trade was UK shopping prices. It was one of the LARGEST DROPS on record last month. So, what happened today for me was expected and a potential risk. And that is what we got. So, everything is ok. The best thing I am doing now is holding my US Dollar longs and keeping an eye on UK data, which has been the hardest to manage and predict since the BREXIT. I said that I will wait another month ago to start predicting the data. I am actually better at risk assessment now..
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen
⋅
Kommentare
dchua1969
⋅
can you share some insights on how to utilise fundamentals economic indicators like inflation, FOMC speeches, etc to analyse the price action? on some days, it is a combination of up and downs which make it confusing which is the price action that follows which news .....even on a probability scale. thanks
Rocketman
⋅
As you can see, it was for a small gain, so in and out of GBPs 3 days ago; and then, yesterday and today I went short after staying up late, trying to make a decision and ignore the technical friends on here. I am still holding short the GBPUSD it as of now. Also, I was long the USDJPY for days holding the ups and downs. It is really tough to teach in writing. And you have to have a plan in place when things go wrong.