I believe that GBPUSD is about to bottom and reversel towards at least 1.34 and likely even higher. However let's see whether the market confirms it. I'm not interested in the sell. Only if we clearly break lower and consolidate by means of a flag pattern I will consider selling GBPUSD.
On the other hand if we reverse I will be looking to buy the continuation in line with a bullish structure break.
Updates will follow.
On the other hand if we reverse I will be looking to buy the continuation in line with a bullish structure break.
Updates will follow.
Kommentar:
Kommentar:
Still looking for the reversal for either a more significant retrace or reversal all together. However I hope this chart shows why I'm not a seller as of yesterday when I posted the original post.
Nevertheless since I'm posting here I don't like to confuse others so let me try to elaborate on the scenario's. First of all at all times keep in mind that price can simply go up and down. We as traders try to trade the highest probability direction with a risk/reward of at least 3/1.
This is why you see me not selling GBPUSD just yet and if I'm right I won't sell it at all in the near future.
I made 5 notes in the chart about what I was looking for after each move. If you were short from the top you could simply hold that short and adjust the stop after each minor consolidation (don't cut your profits short). However if you were not I wouldn't have entered as of yesterday anymore because of the risk/reward which is too low for me as well as the probability of a successful trade.
This might mean that I miss several trades but that is nothing more than opportunity cost and in the end I know my approach will pay of big time.
So what I'm looking for right now is whether we will see another consolidation or a reversal all together. I follow one direction for now and go as low as the 5 min time frame for entries. So once the 1 hr time frame confirms the reversal I'm out of the woods already and more importantly by pinpointing your entry you can chase risk/rewards that are more than 20/1.
Keep an open mind at all times. If you have a different opinion I'm perfectly fine with that. I'm not running a popularity contest and am not trying to convince anyone. All my set-ups are rationalized and are an IF=THEN process.
I hope this helps, if your trade plan doesn't show you a trade then simply don't trade. I will never sell signals because first of all I manage an investment fund so I'm not allowed to do that but also because I believe there are two ways in this business. You either teach or you manage a fund. I try to do both although some might think there are no professionals on Tradingview. So please try to participate in a way so we all benefit or enjoy your day and your life and move on.
Thanks for the support and the those traders who asked me about how to interpreted this analysis, I hope this explains it a little better. I will also post another chart of the 5 min time frame for additional context.
And remember it is not about being right it is about trading when you are right. So don't get emotional when a set-up won't trigger, that's part of the game.