The german government bonds (REX) have risen years and years due to ever falling interest rates.
They have finally reached a ridiculous level. Who would lend the government money without asking a certain sum for the taken risk?
Only in a world of no risk - given by the european central bank policy - one would give money and attending nearly zero gains.
But these times could be over now. Mr. Draghi hasn´t change anything, only a little tapering of the vast sum he pumps into markets (tapered from 60 to 30 bn euros a month). He didn´t touch the interest rate and he won´t do it for a long time, knowing that rising interest rates would cause the default of some states as Italy (and he´s coming from Italy!).
It seems that the market has changed its opinion and is aware of new risks. Perhaps coming from failing states (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, France).
The last strong man in Europe has been Germany. But this land can´t pay the bill of all other countries. Additionally the germans have no chancellor (Merkel) at the moment and the new government has difficulties to be built. Merkel has lost a lot of its influence on the politics and also on the markets.
These arguments put together have influenced the direction of the index for government bonds (5 years).
We have to expect falling prices in bonds in the next months and years. Only with a new money-supply program (more money and higher ecb-balances) the trend could be stopped. Will the helicopter-money be the next option to be taken by Draghi?
They have finally reached a ridiculous level. Who would lend the government money without asking a certain sum for the taken risk?
Only in a world of no risk - given by the european central bank policy - one would give money and attending nearly zero gains.
But these times could be over now. Mr. Draghi hasn´t change anything, only a little tapering of the vast sum he pumps into markets (tapered from 60 to 30 bn euros a month). He didn´t touch the interest rate and he won´t do it for a long time, knowing that rising interest rates would cause the default of some states as Italy (and he´s coming from Italy!).
It seems that the market has changed its opinion and is aware of new risks. Perhaps coming from failing states (Spain, Greece, Portugal, Italy, France).
The last strong man in Europe has been Germany. But this land can´t pay the bill of all other countries. Additionally the germans have no chancellor (Merkel) at the moment and the new government has difficulties to be built. Merkel has lost a lot of its influence on the politics and also on the markets.
These arguments put together have influenced the direction of the index for government bonds (5 years).
We have to expect falling prices in bonds in the next months and years. Only with a new money-supply program (more money and higher ecb-balances) the trend could be stopped. Will the helicopter-money be the next option to be taken by Draghi?