EUR/USD: Technical outlook

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
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Starting from the top this morning, we can see that the single currency formed a bearish engulfing candle last week within the confines of a weekly supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278. Should this area hold prices lower for a sixth consecutive time, weekly support at 1.0796 will likely be the next target in the firing range. Lower down the scale, daily action recently retested the underside of a broken demand yesterday at 1.1385-1.1332, consequently forming an indecision candle in the process. Assuming that the bears manage to defend this area, the next zone on the hit list is likely going to be the fresh demand seen below at 1.1143-1.1187. Stepping across to the H4 chart, the EUR/USD shows that early morning trade in London saw price snap through offers at 1.1300 and reach highs of 1.1331 on the day.

Since we know that both the weekly and daily charts show price at supply right now (see above), our prime focus will be on shorting this pair today. To our way of seeing things, there are two ways in which we can approach this market:

1. Watch the H4 resistance at 1.1338 for a sell trade. Historically, this level has provided the EUR significant support and resistance in the past, and considering the fact that it sits within both weekly and daily supply (see above) we believe it to be a nice base in which to look for shorting opportunities.

2. In the event that price fails to reach the above said resistance, we’ll then be looking for price to break below and retest 1.1300. This would potentially clear the rubble for a try at 14th April lows (1.1233), followed closely by H4 demand at 1.1168-1.1190 (sits within daily demand at 1.1143-1.1187).

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.1338 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sells: Watch for price to consume 1.1300 and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation required).
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• Buys: 1.1338 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level). IS THAT CORRECT as 1. states sell at that level ?
Sorry yes, that is a typo. Sells are also seen at 1.1338
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