There is a very low chance of a rate hike for the upcoming meeting and there has been very little chance of a rate hike for like the last 5 upcoming meetings. I am personally not speculating about the outcome of this meeting because 10YT Bond rate is at the brink of breaking its floor at 1.7% and reaching new all time lows. For me if there was a time to hike rates it would be now, but of course the FED does what the FED wants so I can't use logic.
Has everyone forgot about Brexit?? Well I have as I have been overwhelmed by the Dollar bear shilling ("DXY to 91!") to realize how important of an event Brexit is in terms of EUR instability and volatility. I believe the dollar is bullish once again and I see no reason why there should be a break of 90 in the coming months - either technically or fundamentally (i may be very wrong).
Everyone should remember that the dollar has had a very bullish run up with a severe overextension and that all of the crosspairs have had a retrace from dollar highs but are still in a longer term bearish cycle.
Possible test of important stop loss level around 1.145 - 1.147 - other scenario is straight down into the abyss. Expecting some ranging between supply/demand zones shown. To conclude these prices will be discount levels in hindsight in about 10 days
As i see in your chart there will be a pullback up trend then a down trend till ur destroy picture, so this could be a bear trape. :)
RahulAndra
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correct sir, on Sunday open we may see a gap down to 1.121 range but I am a bit suspicious about this 1.145 supply zone which has been a very pivotal stop run level historically. Am wondering if this level could be hit on the volatility seen w/ the FOMC meeting. From a fundamental perspective I don't really think that another denial of a hike will have a lasting effect of more than 24 - 48 hrs. I think we will see heavy downside begin from around the 16th at the least (unless there's a hike :D) because the 16th is around 6 business days away from Brexit so maybe we will see price factored in very rapidly and then see ranging due to uncertainty in the couple of days prior to the event. My average is around 1.137 and I have stops past 1.151. Best of luck!
syazwan_president
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NICEE..!
UnknownUnicorn468659
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I like your analysis. Very nice! I'll certainly want to see more picture drawings as well in the future. ;) Keep it up.