moontumble
Short

EURUSD - Is the Euro's wax really wearing thin?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
Technically, I see a developing head and shoulders pattern which could potentially break the neckline soon, a scenario which I'm looking out for as confirmation to add to my short position.

Although I try to largely avoid fundamentals, I consider the fundamental criteria to be largely supportive for the potential for a generous bearish correction in this pair, i.e. based on the ECB's relative bearish stance hitherto in comparism the US Fed (and others such as Bank of Canada and maybe soon the BoE?). In particular, the long-running bullish bias in anticipation of eventual ECB rate hikes, i.e. fuelled by both EUR bulls and US bears drove the EURUSD             pair up to it's recent top as the proverbial candle that is burned from both ends. But maybe the "wax" is getting a bit thin here. In my opinion, this anticipation has opened the door of bullish expectation for EURUSD             so widely that minor issues in the ECB's ability/willingness to finally initiate quantitative tightening soon and along with the US Fed's expressed intention of QT might drive EURUSD             into a sustained bearish bias. As such, I suspect this equals a Damocles' sword for the ECB and thus the EUR.

I'm obviously bearish here, waiting for a neckline break after which I will closely monitor the indicated zones of support along the way.

This is my opinion and purely for posterity, no trading advice. Ensure your own due dilligence.
Happy trading!

Comments are welcome...

Trade ist aktiv: After decisive H+S neckline break, high momentum price action finds initial support on 78.6% major (red dotted) fib of 03/01/2017 - 08/09/2017 swing. After pot small dead cat bounce in development, anticipating another test and break of red 78.6% fib and further drop. Watching closely for further confirmation.

Personal target is projected distance of the vertical "H+S neckline to H+S head" (brown rectangle) towards 1.158 price level, coinciding with (blue) 261.8% retracement.
Trade ist aktiv:

This is what I'm watching right now. After failure to break and close below the blue 200% and white 161.8% fib levels, we found preliminary support.

I expect a pullback to the blue 138.2% fib level, with potential for price to poke its head through on momentum and test the 1.18 psychlogical level above.
If long price action remains unsuccesful, another decline towards and test of the previous support zone puts a break and close below on the cards. In this case I"ll look towards 1.1625 minor support area followed by the blue 261.8% fib level that coincides with the (projected) height of the "head to neckline" of the initial H+S.

Please ensure your won due dilligence before making any decisions on positions.
Trade ist aktiv: Multiple resistances broken, back at H+S neckline.
Trade ist aktiv:

Volume appears to be tapering off, RSI on 1H and 4H TF overbought.
Doji formed precisely at neckline, although price action on further upside.
Let's see if this is just a blow off at the pullback or not.
Entered another short position for a quick 1:2 RR setup.
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