Although I try to largely avoid fundamentals, I consider the fundamental criteria to be largely supportive for the potential for a generous correction in this pair, i.e. based on the ECB's relative stance hitherto in comparism the US Fed (and others such as Bank of Canada and maybe soon the BoE?). In particular, the long-running bias in anticipation of eventual ECB rate hikes, i.e. fuelled by both EUR bulls and US bears drove the EURUSD pair up to it's recent top as the proverbial candle that is burned from both ends. But maybe the "wax" is getting a bit thin here. In my opinion, this anticipation has opened the door of expectation for EURUSD so widely that minor issues in the ECB's ability/willingness to finally initiate quantitative tightening soon and along with the US Fed's expressed intention of QT might drive EURUSD into a sustained bias. As such, I suspect this equals a Damocles' sword for the ECB and thus the EUR.
I'm obviously here, waiting for a neckline break after which I will closely monitor the indicated zones of support along the way.
This is my opinion and purely for posterity, no trading advice. Ensure your own due dilligence.
Comments are welcome...
Personal target is projected distance of the vertical "H+S neckline to H+S head" (brown rectangle) towards 1.158 price level, coinciding with (blue) 261.8% retracement.
This is what I'm watching right now. After failure to break and close below the blue 200% and white 161.8% fib levels, we found preliminary support.
I expect a pullback to the blue 138.2% fib level, with potential for price to poke its head through on momentum and test the 1.18 psychlogical level above.
If long price action remains unsuccesful, another decline towards and test of the previous support zone puts a break and close below on the cards. In this case I"ll look towards 1.1625 minor support area followed by the blue 261.8% fib level that coincides with the (projected) height of the "head to neckline" of the initial H+S.
Please ensure your won due dilligence before making any decisions on positions.
Volume appears to be tapering off, RSI on 1H and 4H TF overbought.
Doji formed precisely at neckline, although price action on further upside.
Let's see if this is just a blow off at the pullback or not.
Entered another short position for a quick 1:2 RR setup.