As you can probably tell, I'm not confident on what's going on right now. I'm creating trades based on emotion. However no one knows 100% what's going to happen.
From what little I know about the actual market, traders like to say what's happening this week as price is intentionally being held, which translates to, orders are being accumulated....but accumulated to drive price where? That's the question.
Well whatever happens today with the news, price will always return back to centre line which is unsurprisingly a round number 1.14000. If you know this and your confident in this you can trade the range with the news, which I'm not going to do.
So what does my magic 8 ball say about....when this holding pattern finishes? My estimates puts it 12 hours from now, that means overnight/tomorrow (UTC+1) we'll get the move.
And is price going to fall or rise ultimately ? I don't know. There is negative divergence currently, but that shouldn't be relied upon. There is a reversal pattern there, but that could change into a continuation pattern.
So what I can I say I'm slightly confident about?
Price could be held for an additional 11-12 hours.
Price could either fall to 1.12 or rise from here to 1.16.
I've close both my trades today, first -6 pips, the second +18 pips. If I'm right there will be no trades to place till this evening.
Of course I'll be watching the Job Claims report at 13:30 (UTC+1) to see if breaks the purple zones or pumps prices up quickly and spend the rest of the afternoon bringing it back down to 1.14000.
From what little I know about the actual market, traders like to say what's happening this week as price is intentionally being held, which translates to, orders are being accumulated....but accumulated to drive price where? That's the question.
Well whatever happens today with the news, price will always return back to centre line which is unsurprisingly a round number 1.14000. If you know this and your confident in this you can trade the range with the news, which I'm not going to do.
So what does my magic 8 ball say about....when this holding pattern finishes? My estimates puts it 12 hours from now, that means overnight/tomorrow (UTC+1) we'll get the move.
And is price going to fall or rise ultimately ? I don't know. There is negative divergence currently, but that shouldn't be relied upon. There is a reversal pattern there, but that could change into a continuation pattern.
So what I can I say I'm slightly confident about?
Price could be held for an additional 11-12 hours.
Price could either fall to 1.12 or rise from here to 1.16.
I've close both my trades today, first -6 pips, the second +18 pips. If I'm right there will be no trades to place till this evening.
Of course I'll be watching the Job Claims report at 13:30 (UTC+1) to see if breaks the purple zones or pumps prices up quickly and spend the rest of the afternoon bringing it back down to 1.14000.
