ICmarkets

EUR/USD: Technical outlook...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
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The EUR currency settled below the H4 mid-way support at 1.1150 yesterday, following a modest sell off from just ahead of the H4 sell zone (green area) seen at 1.12/1.1192. This move erased more than fifty percent of Wednesday’s gains, and was likely boosted by price bouncing from H4 support at 95.48 over on the USDX.

Given the strong close beyond 1.1150 and the fact that daily action has established itself within the confines of a daily resistance area coming in at 1.1224-1.1104, it’s possible we may see a continuation move down to the 1.11 handle today. Additionally, should price take out 1.11 either today or next week, the D-leg of a H4 harmonic Gartley pattern may take shape down to around the 1.10 region.

Since we’re adding the H4 Quasimodo support into the equation, our buy zone for the above said H4 Gartley pattern is fixed between 1.0978/1.1011 (lower green box). Aggressive traders may place stops just below this green zone, whilst more conservative traders might opt to set stops beyond the X point of the harmonic pattern around the 1.0947ish range.

On the data front, traders are likely eyeing the Preliminary German GDP release along with USD retail sales data a little later on. Therefore, do remain vigilant around those times guys!

Our suggestions: In view of the points noted above, here’s our two pips’ worth:

• Look to sell any retest seen to the underside of 1.1150, targeting 1.11 as your immediate take-profit zone. Should price reach here, we’d also ideally be looking to move our stops to breakeven at this point.

• In the event that the EUR does indeed continue to weaken, we’d be looking to buy the pair within the above said H4 harmonic Gartley reversal zone, since it also sits on top of the daily support area at 1.0909-1.0982 – the next downside target on the daily timeframe .

In regards to selling 1.1150, we’d also advise waiting for a lower timeframe sell trigger before placing capital on the line (see the top of this report) as fakeouts are common around psychological levels! Concerning longs, we would, dependent on the time of day and H4 approach, look to enter long at market from the aforementioned H4 harmonic buy zone, taking the more conservative approach to stops.
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