My long-term view is that the decline since May 2014 has been a 5-wave impulse pattern which is the thrust from a bearish triangle that began in 2008/9. In March 2015, the 3rd wave of this thrust completed at 1.0459. The following rally to 1.1714 was the 4th wave. That 4th wave retraced nearly exactly 0.382 of the 3rd wave, by my count.
The 5th and final wave down has begun, with its first leg having been reached at 1.10874. It is now correcting upward in an ABC pattern, the B-wave of which is a bullish triangle. The triangle's parameters thus far imply a thrust upward to about 1.15128. Taking that as .786 of the total thrust upward, I suspect there will be brief consolidation at that level followed by a final spike to the 1.1578 area (represents the 1.00 to the 0.786) to complete the 2nd wave correction -- which also represents the .786 retracement of the 1st wave down.
Thereafter, a 3rd wave down presumably targeting 1.05618 or lower should commence. I would expect the final target of the 5th of 5th wave to bring the Euro to below parity with the Dollar.
Kommentare
AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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If what I'm seeing here is a late-terminating 4th wave triangle for wave "c" of 2 (circle), the thrust has potential to go beyond 1.1578 as far as the 1.67 area, to just below the extreme of the wave 1 (circle).
AynCzubas
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Closeup:
AynCzubas
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Adjusting parameters: at this point "c" is .382 of "b".
AynCzubas
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I reckon this is the finished triangle formation and now thrusting up.
AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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AynCzubas
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Now thinking wave 4 is still developing as a triangle.