The weekly close on the daily timeframe was above Weekly R1 giving a bullish bias for the next week (Price will gravitate to the next weeks Weekly R1 and above it). The Ichimoku system shows how price found excellent support by the upper Kumo Cloud on the 3-4th Sep and on friday we saw a close above the Kijun Sen (White Equilibrium line). But price is still trading within the monthly and weekly consolidation which looks more like a bear flag on higher timeframe. A daily ABCD pattern has a D level at 1,18, which still is in play (this level is also the 38,2 fib of the large bear wave) Most traders on daily and higher timeframe are awaiting the FOMC decision coming up, still on intraday chart possibilities may arise, especially on the long side, as that is the bias on daily timeframe currently. It was the first time we saw a clean support by the cloud since price started probing above it post March low. This is a bullish clue. On weekly timeframe, price is getting close to the large Kumo Cloud resistance, next week with the lower border at 1,1375. Keep this level in mind, since they tend to have strong impact even on lower timeframe. This also puts a lid on the bullish possibilities pre FOMC.
Thursday's FOMC rate decision forecast is 0,5% , that is an increased interest rate by 25 basis points. A miss may give that leg up to complete the target at 1,18, and with an unchanged interest rate we may see a sharp sell off. A break and close below the Bear Flag marked in the chart, will probably challenge previous march low below 1,05.
Kommentare
CapMoore
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Correction at the end: An increased rate would be USD bullish of course.