ICmarkets
Short

Thoughts on the EUR this morning...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
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The value of the EUR strengthened in aggressive fashion on Tuesday, as the US dollar             continued to plummet. Several H4 tech resistances were wiped out during the assault, with key resistance now resting around the 1.11 handle.

Alongside this, daily action ran through a trendline resistance extended from the high 1.1616, and is now seen within striking distance of a strong resistance line coming in at 1.1142. This barrier stretches as far back as early 2015, so it’s certainly not a level one should overlook. Looking up to the weekly candles, however, the bulls appear to have a relatively clear run up to a resistance area drawn from 1.1533-1.1278.

Our suggestions: Upside momentum has unquestionably diminished ahead of the 1.11 hurdle, but is this enough to consider shorting? Given the strength of the bulls over the past few days, we would be wary of selling from here. What’s more, let’s take into account that forty or so pips above 1.11 sits a formidable daily resistance line at 1.1142, which is likely being watched by the majority of the market.

At the time of writing, our idea is to wait and see how the market reacts once it connects with the said daily resistance, as this could be a critical turning point, and one that we may consider shorting should a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle form.

Data points to consider: No high-impacting news on the docket today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1142 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle, preferably a full-bodied candle, to form before pulling the trigger is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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