For my previous post regarding the bigger picture see links below:
We see a triangle consolidation by means of a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. I'm therefore looking for 3 waves higher for wave E to complete wave 4 of larger degree.
Follow me for updates follow me because I will update this post for EURUSD trades.
Guy's I'm open for reactions and ideas but please read carefully and keep an open mind at all time. I share my view here in detail and for free. Not many analysts show so much detail as I do, those who know me for a longer period of time most likely understand what I'm looking for. So please have a look at previous post on how to interpreted structure or ask me but I won't respond anymore to those who say this can't happen or anything like that. This is not how the market works and is the most efficient way to loose your account. So please act in a professional matter or just move on. This is specifically for those who send me private messages that are kind of pathetic and not showing much knowledge of the market. Have a great weekend and good trading next week! Thanks for the support and hope you all find a way to use my analyses in your advantage.
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It was confusing to some traders what wave count to use so I will try to elaborate. We are in a 3-3-3-3-3 wave structure triangle on the daily time frame, that part is pretty clear. This is the highest probability wave count due to the inner structure and characteristics. Since we saw 3 waves lower from 1.162 I counted wave D to be in place. However these 3 waves lower can also be wave A of wave D (in blue). Nevertheless looking at short term structure we see more room to the upside after the impulse in the end of last week. So in both cases we will be looking for a consolidation in the beginning of the week and trade the continuation. There is no need to get lost in which of the two scenario's is correct because both scenario's exactly follow the rules and even if this structure completes most likely both scenario's are still valid. So keep an aye on the 1 hour time frame for a possible buy. To me 1.13 is the minimum target for whatever scenario we are in but keep in mind that price can easily move higher towards 1.15-1.16.
Below I post the original scenario as posted 20 days ago.
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Whether wave D is in place or in need of another leg lower isn't relevant for the short term. I like to see EURUSD a little higher to test 1.1263 before a reversal should start. Once we see the reversal (IF it happens) we can determine where we are in the daily consolidation. I'll be looking for divergence clues on lower time frames before shorting this instrument out of 1.1263 zone. If we reverse sooner I will let it settle, consolidate and sell the third leg lower.
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Guy's I missed the sell from the top, I had two zones the first one appears to be the high for EU but the second one was my favorite. Especially in a week with NFP. So I'm okay with missing the short trade because this is what I see as likely to be next. We either see my sell zone 1.126 get hit tomorrow, ideally by means of a spike. Or this impulse is the start of a new impulse of bigger degree. In that case we will see a correction soon as well and I will use that to trade out. No worries the market is great and nothing moves in a straight line. Updates will follow
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TheMarketSurgeon1
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It's the first time I'm reading on your analysis and I must appreciate your work. I'm also using EW and the analysis rhyme with mine though the count method is slightly different. Market is so dynamic, so I keep my mind open for anything
TimStuyts
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Thank you. Very good, keep an open mind at all time, that's key in any kind of market. I agree there are a few other counts valid as well. I believe short term we should be looking for consolidation and continuation for all possible wave counts until reversal and adjust. Personally I wished we had this kind of market 365 day's a year;-)
catrionaforex
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Hi Tim, As a new trader studying wave analysis I appreciate your detailed explanations and hope you continue :-)
TimStuyts
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Sure will and thank you for the support, let me know if you have question's. Have a nice weekend!
plok
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Many thanks for the elaborate analysis, explanation and timely updates. For me as an EW novice this is valuable info.
Alex.Singletary
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i think that it will reverse here. We are sitting just above monthly pivot, still european union woes to worry about.
TimStuyts
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Yes could be, for me a consolidation is an opportunity to buy, if it reverses impulsively then I wait for consolidation and sell (but don't see that happen before wave E completes). When using fundamentals, you need to understand fair value and the difference between qualitative and quantitative data. Qualitative data that is leading at the moment is US rate hike or not and how much, Quantitative data is inflation data out of US and all that is connected to that at the moment. Then we have market dynamic, the major players in the market that move billions, this is another reason why something might move against what you expect. Therefore it is better to start studying structure and if you understand how to implement fundamentals and market dynamic you are winning more than 90% of the time.
Alex.Singletary
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i agree for the most part. I started off on structures, but what you find is that 90% of people dont understand wave counts. Also structure lines cannot account for sideways movement, so i see it as flawed. as where weekly and monthly pivots are simply important prices that should be paid attention to. Just my two cents... the way i see it, as long as all of us are making money here who cares how you analyze :) Keep up the good work i like seeing your charts
TimStuyts
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I will host live webinars on my website with my team and post daily top/down analyses so others do understand, trading is hard work so it costs time, but for me I either trade the best or nothing. So I had to study or find another job. But there are many ways leading to Rome, just find the way that works for you. I'm logging off for the week now. Enjoy your weekend.