donaldsaw
Short

RECOUNT - CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS READY NOW!

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
Hi All,

Last week, I posted a EUR correction that I thought has started but sure enough, market always seems to push up more than anticipated. However I still firmly believe the count is still very valid as we have been extremely bullish since the 10th of April since we hit a price of 1.15690 and a retracement is due so I am on the hunt to re-enter a big short that is likely to provide about 500+ pips.

Wave count updated:

Just to be pedantic, I went into all sub-waves and cross checked out all fibs and extensions and all signs are pointing for a USD short for the coming weeks - please see the summary below.

Wave 1: Standard 5 wave impulse
Wave 2: ZZ correction which retraced 61.8% of wave 1
Wave 3: This impulse extended 423% of wave 1 which is a massive extension - sub wave impulse of 3 are also marked out with fibs met.
Wave 4: Flat correction which retraced 23.8% - (EW rule of alternation sufficed)
Wave 5: Final 5 impulse completed at the announcement of NFP last week.

A few points to note to mark the completion of this impulse as follows;

1. Bear Divergence seen in all timeframes from 1D down to 1min - A short/retracement is due.
2. Wave 1 vs Wave 5 - Wave 5 extended 1.618% of Wave 1 which 5th waves tend to extend to.
3. GAP is yet to close which serves as a major support, and is bang on 78.6% retracement level where I am expecting the ABC to terminate.

Feel free to ask any questions/comment if anything is unclear.

Exciting times ahead all and I can't wait to see what the following week(s) brings...

Cheers,
Don
Kommentar: Hi all,

This week is looking interesting already and I am seeing signs of a final impulse happening at a lower timeframe. It looks like wave 3 extended to 423% of wave 1 and 5th wave is a shaping out to be an ending diagonal.

The only reservation I have is that it could make a new high with the current move being a wave 4 of the ending diagonal but won't be much higher.

The good to note is that ED's are terminal moves as it is a type of triangle so a change in direction will happen imminently and I will be looking for a short entry at the break of key support levels and watch it fall!

Trade ist aktiv: Hi All,

My short trades have triggered and so far the pair is behaving as per my count.

Let's see what the US do when their markets open shortly. I'm estimate is that they will follow suit with the Asian and the EU markets and start buying USD.

Let's see what they do...

Don
Kommentar: Update:

Hi All,

EUR is moving down nicely, albeit slow, however, it is behaving from an EW count perspective so it's all looking good. Tomorrow should determine which way the market will move as I am anticipate a big fall as I've seen a wave 1 and a 2 correction complete. Let's see what the Asian markets do today and into Europe.

Kommentar: Update again:

It looks like a WXY combo as it developed in the Asian session. If the high doesn't hold, the count is invalid.

Trade ist aktiv: Here we go all - All short trades triggered!
Order storniert: Eur is being stubborn alright. Trades closed out at entry and looking at reentering again.
Trade ist aktiv: Hi All,

Trades are active now and falling nicely. 2 X key targets I'm looking out for next are 1.11515 (1.618% extension) and 1.1070 (2.618% extension)

Cheers,
Don
Kommentar: Hi All,

Quick update on EUR/USD - I am still expecting a fall but is USD ready?

I am seeing a impulse down already with a corrective wave in play which is either a wave 2 or A or an ABC correction. Today/tomorrow will be very telling as to which way this pair will go and with the Fed Funds Rate potentially increasing to 1.25%, this could increase the demand for USD.

Let's see what happens here.

"Feel free to ask any questions/comment if anything is unclear."
How many times can you revise the past count before you change your forecast? Seriously, if the wave count can be that wrong that many times, how can anyone have confidence in a forecast from it?
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More realistically; Elliot Waves work ONLY with hindsight, heh heh heh, and lots of CORRECTIONS.
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Great work bro. Thanks!
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I'm also short on EU with SL at 1.1300
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donaldsaw amilajayawi
@amilajayawi, Having a stop that narrow is a bit close for comfort as the market could open with a yet another gap and stop you out.

In terms of the short trade, I'm yet to re-enter as mentioned above as the market needs to decide whether to a) continue its upward trend and break the 1.1300 or b) start the ABC correction. I'm still favouring a short but will wait for a break of the support or resistance before getting into the trade again.

Also, your EW count on the chart doesn't look correct. However, Gartley looks more corrective but just cautious of wave D as it has gone past the resistance zone from a Gartley perspective.

Let's see what the market does when it opens tomorrow.

GL
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amilajayawi donaldsaw
@donaldsaw, Hi mate the sub-wave count is incorrect. I'm aware. And I agree the market could gap up and stop me out. But trading with the harmonic methods, I wouldn't allow a bigger room for stop loss than few pips above 1.13. The pattern is a Perfect Harmonic Bat and the price hasn't respected the zone a bit. I might as well look for better confirmation before going for a bigger short
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donaldsaw amilajayawi
@amilajayawi, no worries at all.

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