mattytb84
Long

Potential Monthly Long and Short Idea???

FX:EURUSD   Euro / US-Dollar
107 0 8
I personally believe the Dollar is topping in the short to medium term and am currently long EUR/USD             looking for the 1.18/1.20 level, but i have recently stumbled across this monthly chart which has multiple technical levels along with the monthly and weekly RSI being divergent, indicating the 1.24 level. Ludicrous i hear you cry, but i also remember thinking that when the Euro             spiked to 1.17ish back in 2015.

So what is going to possibly lead to this rally?? Well i think there will be a slowdown in economic growth in US, weaker data and a backtrack in the potential rate hikes being spoken about. Then from the Euro             side i think the fears of Marine Le Pen will subside as Macron secures the French Election, and Angela Merkel will be re-elected.

That will provide us with a retest of the neckline of that potential messy but valid monthly head and shoulder pattern and fit in with the timeline of the culmination of Brexit which i believe will be far more negative for the EUR than it will be the GBP and bring about the re-organistation of the Eurozone structure to avoid collapse. That in conjunction with a long term reversal in the dollar heading to eventual new highs brings in a long term target of the previous 2000 low of 0.82ish.

Any and all views are appreciated, of course the fundamentals are all simply theories to coincide with the long term technicals i am seeing.
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