I'm publishing EURGBP 4H Chart even if you can find my view in a daily log scale in my published ideas, for a closer view and a better understanding of the structure and the targets. Daily Chart
Since 06.10.2016 the pair has started the correction developing a five-wave sequence, A-wave (circle) ending at 0.83046. So far B-wave (circle) has possibly unfolded into an expanding flat developed into 3-3-5 internal structure [A]-[B]-[C] 1 - Wave-[A] developed into a ZigZag internal structure 5-3-5, ending at 0.88523. 2 - Wave-[B] developed into a more complex Zig-Zag with a deeper b-wave, ending at 0.82970, slightly breaking [A]-wave's origin (0.83046) for 7 pips. With that in mind and if the [C] wave was developing into a 5-wave sequence, we could expect a break of [A]-wave's end, extended up to 23.6%fib - 38.2%fib extension. 3 - Wave-[C] developing into a 5-wave motive structure, expecting internal (5)-wave to develop into an expanding ending diagonal, ending at 0.89790(+/-), where many Fibonacci measurements cooperate, pointing a High-Probability reversal target.
If price finally reverse, a big drop is expected, targeting 0,79550(+/-) with a 5-wave motive C-wave (circle), completing the correction with a Zig-Zag.
Trade with discipline. Best
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Focusing on the 5-wave sequence
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Was dropped from 0.89790 s mentioned, but it was too corrective to hold out shorts. Watch if price will break the previous high at 0.89950. If not then possible leading diagonal
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Price broke previous high, leading diagonal invalid. Stay out of this pair for now, till further confirmation
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Price has reached 38.2% ext of [A] wave as expected. Looking for reversal from this point.
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Price finally reached the top and dropped. Same plan as before. Even if expanding ending diagonal didn't work, that only change the type of corrective structure ABC (circle) will be. Was looking for a Zig-Zag pattern whereas, now after breaking that top, I expect an expanding flat or a running flat to take place. Watch structure for further confirmation Last C (circle) wave should be a motive. Find short opportunities after some correction.
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Making correction, watch for further drop, short opportunity.
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Looking to sell higher. 2nd corrective wave incomplete.
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Pirce retraced a lot.Still looking to sell higher. If it breaks 0.87331, possible change of plans.
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Broke down, start selling whenever you find opportunity
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Price broke but never correct, instead pulled back. Could we finally expect one more move up even for A(circle) top?
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Of course, that's just a scenario. I will look for buy if price break up.
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Correcting
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Price reached the red line and pulled back. Possible start of the new upmove.
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Was looking for a possible break down as the price was unable to continue rising, although Price reached previous low and rejected it. Not clear the downside yet Keep monitoring
Hi Chris. Great work.
Looking for a sell setup here also, as, although the pattern did non break (b) at the top, it could be already complete. If a sell setup is to be found, we will ride with positions in BE until total downside confirmation, at the breaking of (c), because, in reality, it could still go for one more up.
Congratulations, keep up the excellent work.
ChrisMark
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Hi @TradingClear, Totally agree, thank you for your kind words.
AleXela
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Was monitoring this idea. Thanks for sharing, all goes for now as said here. Not sure if it hits .902 and higher (C at 0.91), but hoping so.
Nicemate
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Hi Chris,
my intent is to become better at this type of analysis, and could use a bit of your help on this pair, as I have noticed you are very prepared ; )
I am having trouble counting the waves inside the BC segment of this big flat. I am sending you my chart as I am seeing it now.
Also, I would like to ask you how if you could help me understand what type of flat will be (running or expanding) while it is forming, just by seeing the way it shapes up.
Thank you very much for your help and your time.
ChrisMark
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Hi @Nicemate, thank you for sharing your chart. Taking into account your wave count, 4th corrective wave is developing an expanding flat which could be correct, however, careful with the next motive 5th wave as it won't be as long as in your chart. Probably could have the length of wave (i) as the wave (iii) is extended.
That's for sure one way to bear in mind. So in this analysis, we expect one more drop to complete the 1st wave of the bigger trend.
ChrisMark
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@Nicemate, An other possibility to bear in mind is that of a deeper correction. That could mean that the first wave of the bigger downtrend has ended so expecting the 2nd corrective wave of the main trend, which will for sure be a bigger correction.
ChrisMark
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@ChrisMark, Right now no one could forecast with accuracy the type of flat it would be.We re hoping to reach the previous low at 0.82970 and even break it for an expanding flat.
However, a running flat is still in play. Based on your analysis 5th wave could be part of the bigger downtrend, in which case, we have a running flat.
Just by looking at previous structure, we can see a lot of similarities.
Could we also have a 5 wave in which wave 3 is not the longest, although not the shortest, and still be in a running (BC=0A).
I hope we are in an expanding flat, but would like to know from which signals we will be able to understand in which type of flat we are !
Hello Chris, according to my calculations, this small correction is not over as yet (both in the running flat and the expanding flat scenarios), for those who want to take short positions, and, if I am not mistaken, the wave counts could and approximate values could proceed as follows. Basically, we will only know if we are in a running or expanding flat when the next impulsive wave to the downside will stop at, or go through the 0.8493 area (100% of A segment = running flat). How does this look to you?
Looking for a sell setup here also, as, although the pattern did non break (b) at the top, it could be already complete. If a sell setup is to be found, we will ride with positions in BE until total downside confirmation, at the breaking of (c), because, in reality, it could still go for one more up.
Congratulations, keep up the excellent work.