scaramucci
Long

Ethereum on Kraken to hit 480 by 5:15am Eastern Time

KRAKEN:ETHUSD   Ethereum / Dollar
I don't normally publish my analyses because I don't feel like explaining them, but since some people may want to benefit from this, I decided to share. I'm sorry I don't really feel like explaining how I got there because I'm self taught and I don't use any existing types of analysis that I'm aware of, so it's difficult to explain, but let's just say that having an autistic brain really helps. I would have preferred to show the minute graph because it's clearer, but Trading View limits at 15min. Anyways, every dimension appears to be aligning to bring Ethereum             to 480 by 05:15am Montreal time, after which the bounce should rapidly throw it near 1000, or 870 if you want to be safe, and hopefully at that point it will slowly start to escape much of the influence of that massive bear. It's been perfectly on course since the 15th of January, and I haven't encountered any significant surprises. The momentum is very fast, so I don't see what could be strong enough to slow it down and prevent it from reaching 480 at this point, but I'll update if I see something I missed. At the time of writing I'm approximately 75-80% confident of my analysis.
Kommentar: Sorry, I wrote 5:15am but I meant 5:45. If it goes under 480, it's a long way down.
Kommentar: Actually, it could fall to 430, after which I would be worried. With the China news, it would add a enough fear sentiment to move the momentum downwards more than it would naturally. I'm setting my trade at 480 to be safe, with a stop-loss at 425.
Kommentar: It's still perfectly on course. Slight adjustments to the time and destination: 457USD at 5:28 EST. I'm buying at 470.

There is one course that I don't want to even consider, which would bring the value all the way down to 70USD by the 10th of February. We're not there yet, and there will be a lot of volatility before that happens, so the but it's not out of the cards, and at the moment of writing I would say there's a 20-25% probability that it will happen. If the bounce from 470 goes below 860, I'll expect a massive bear. If it succeeds in over 976, then it might be recuperating, but it still won't be bullish until it succeeds in going comfortably over 1250.
Kommentar: I didn't correctly foresee the event that happened at (567,3:43), and it may have effectively thrown it bit off course. I have trouble seeing how this could be the defining push, however, as the momentum still clearly seems bearish to me. It might be the upwards push it needs to hit the mark with enough force to explode as I had predicted. I'll see when I wake up in a few hours, but nothing is really indicating at the moment of writing that it's not still going as planned, even though it may seem intimidating to see it go from (567,3:43) to (675:04:48).

Only regret is that I didn't pick up two good trades, but even I need to sleep sometimes!
Kommentar: I really need to go back to sleep, but before, after considering the new information, I'm revising my estimation of the final south destination to (456,07:31EST).
Kommentar: At the moment, it's delayed but still appears on track. There's a short-term upwards movement happening, I'm trying to figure out how it will impact the timelines, and most importantly if it signifies a change in trend, but I doubt it at this point. Still, I could be wrong. The main movement is still very bearish. The delay might be of a couple days. Lots of profit opportunities in the meantime for day traders who want to exploit the volatility.
Kommentar: I need to leave and I won't have the internet for the next few hours, but before I go I just wanted to say that the (567,3:43) may be the result of the fall that started at (960, 02:00EST;05FEB2018). If that's the case, the retracement could go all the way up to 820. I'm 65-70% confident.
Kommentar: Make that 40% confident... It's doing very confusing movements right now and I'm having information overload, so I don't trust my judgement.
Kommentar: I'm now 90-95% confident that the event of (567,3:43) today was the consequence of the intersections between the influences of the events of (433,18:30EST;10DEC2017) (bull), (1292,16:30EST;09JAN2018) (bear), (960,10:25;05FEB2018) (bear) (845,01:37EST;05FEB2018) (bear). I'm angry at myself for having missed it, but I had misplaced a trend line, missing this massive intersection and the triangle that it caused to appear. The impact was potentially even stronger than, and more direct, that what I was expecting at the 456 target. Whether it was strong enough to flip the bearish trend remains to be seen, there's still a ton of resistance on the way upwards. at the moment of writing it's at (785,15:36EST;05FEB2018) and I expect it to reach 795 before coming back down to 725, where I'll probably pick it up. It could go down to 700 or even 680, but right now it seems to be comfortably leaving the bear at (960,10:25;05FEB2018), which up to now had a very strong influence, so I'd be very careful about waiting too long to get in the game.
Kommentar: (764,21:35EST), I'm 90% confident that the upward trend has ended for the day. I'm shorting. I don't see how it could continue upwards today. There's still a very harmonic route to 450 in a day or so, though it might hit with less impact than it would have had it hit today. I'll add updates as necessary.

Lots and lots of opportunities for profit right now!
Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht: I'm closing this, I just found out why I was missing some of the moves. Whoever made the Fibonacci speed resistance tool was lazy and decided to estimate the proportions of 0.286 and 0.736 with 0.25 and 0.75 respectively. For most of the fans I had drawn, I had fixed it, but when I made a new template, for some reason it went back to those way-too-approximate proportions, which made me miss the (733,01:33EST) event, that happened when I was sleeping, before I realized my mistake.

I fixed it now in my template and on my graph, but I still missed a good profit opportunity. Anyways, I'm closing this thread until I get my shit in order. I'm also writing to Trading View to ask them to fix this, because it leads to mistakes. If I'm going to predict these movements correctly, crude estimates don't suffice.
Oh and a quick disclaimer, as this is not an encouragement to buy or sell, I'm simply sharing my thoughts. One thing is for sure is that this is -not- a market to HODL or gamble. If you can't see the patterns clearly yourself, don't let yourself be tempted to listen to anyones advice, including myself. Stay out until the market recuperates. Do not invest, you'll be at risk of massive losses, the bear is still very, very strong.
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I' m now 90-95% confident that the event of (567,3:43) today was the consequence of the intersections between the influences of the events of (433,18:30EST;10DEC2017) (bull), (1292,16:30EST;09JAN2018) (bear), (960,10:25;05FEB2018) (bear) (845,01:37EST;05FEB2018) (bear). I'm angry at myself for having missed it, but I had misplaced a trend line, missing this massive intersection and the triangle that it caused to appear. The impact was potentially even stronger than, and more direct, that what I was expecting at the 456 target. Whether it was strong enough to flip the bearish trend remains to be seen, there's still a ton of resistance on the way upwards. at the moment of writing it's at (785,15:36EST;05FEB2018) and I expect it to reach 795 before coming back down to 725, where I'll probably pick it up. It could go down to 700 or even 680, but right now it seems to be comfortably leaving the bear at (960,10:25;05FEB2018), which up to now had a very strong influence, so I'd be very careful about waiting too long to get in the game.
+1 Antworten
Good stuff. I'm trying to figure out where we head next but maybe it just needs to go higher to get the momentum to go lower. Maybe 810 and if we hit that then I'm thinking we hit 425? Update us if you can get the time pinpointed.
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Thanks!!!!
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@copa1079, You're welcome :) Check the updates, I'm putting up important information as it comes in. If there's a significant changes direction (upwards/downwards on the 2D graph), or if I realize I was wrong in my analysis, I'll say it in a heartbeat. My goal isn't to be right but to be as in touch with the patterns of reality as possible.

At the moment, it's delayed but still appears on track. There's a short-term upwards movement happening, I'm trying to figure out how it will impact the timelines, and most importantly if it signifies a change in trend, but I really doubt it. The movement is still very bearish.

Oh and, I'm focusing on the major low but there's -a lot- of opportunity for profit at the moment.

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