This is NOT about discrediting 'HONEST' Tradingview members. It is a 'HOW TO' and cautionary advisement, some topics may be unpleasant. Draw your own conclusions, supplement with your own research. If you appreciate the work, add a LIKE. Feedback is welcome... if helpful, on topic and NOT antagonist. Several TOP AUTHORS commended this work and now follow. If you participate in the chat area, you are also flattering the work. Finally, this is a HUGE project in progress... be patient. May have to recopy/post a few times before it gets a permanent home.
When I was new to Tradingview...
I was severely overwhelmed, somewhat lost. Took months to figure out what was going on, who to trust, what to do first.
You probably viewed my POST because... - you are eager to learn.. and if possible, only from the best - you want profitable trades, most of the time, enough to make a living - you want all this... NOW ::LOL::
My goal is to help you avoid the mistakes I made when I was new. Anyone can provide great direction, but you still have to do the work.
-- LET's BEGIN with the MOST IMPORTANT RULE of TRADING --
***Trading is BOTH Psychology and Methodology***
- The 'state of mind' of the trader is everything in cyrpto trading - but methodology is what improves your odds of making money
Although methodology includes TA (tech analysis)... TA is incomplete and there are other methods that work well. Many methods can be used in combinations. If anyone tells you otherwise, thank them and be on your way.
You should read EVERYTHING here in sequence...
If you skip something, just ONE little idea or a few paragraphs... you will kick yourself when you start losing money and realize the info you need was skipped over. THIS HAS HAPPENED TO ME.
Facts about myself:
My 75% success in trades generates big profits; they exceed my living expenses. I knew NOTHING about trading when I first started and I paid the price. Opening a local day trading school, but I promote ETHER over BTC. Follow BTC intensely; it predicts ETHER movement. Do not consider myself an expert in TA, but I am one of the best traders I know. Formerly a trusted and respected psych therapist. Once owned a finance company with 100 brokers. Currently an IT pro; hired by bond trading rooms, etc. In spite of all this: I still need GOOD TA from others to 'check' my baselines. Sometimes I am just wrong and need challenging ideas. Now following 27 members, some are top authors, some are small. Not everyone I follow does good TA; I study good vs bad characters for my own reasons.
My 'therapist nature' motivated me to share this post. Wisdom: The more you give in life, the more you are rewarded.
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SECTION 1 - How to FIND great 'IDEAS' on TRADING VIEW
Tradingview uses a secret formula to identify top publishers of the day, week and month.It is based on categories, not just performance.
There is NO quality control with this method. The more times someone makes the top author box, the more they cement their rating.
It is very helpful, but beware its shortcomings.
After your first login to Tradingview, bookmark the URL to your browser bar:
Under the TOP Authors in Tradingview, are vertical columns of the most recent posts. These are usually NOT top authors:
- Browse visually; then open the IDEAS of those that interest you - Select 'FOLLOW' on those members that grab your interest - Your limit is 30. After 30, botton members vanish without warning - Member posts show on the right sidebar (click LIGHT BULB icon above BELL icon) - Once your list hits 20, start unfollowing the less valuable ones - Edit your email and notifications for what they publish - DO NOT overwhelm yourself (example: I stopped emails and read my sidebar)
Guidelines on what to say in IDEA Rooms...
Following others is a great way to learn. As you know, you click on their IDEA to see their first chart. Observe the date... but note where the price is currently. Read everything, even if you do not understand it all. This drills terminology into your head... repetition is good.
Below the last 'comment update' by the author... There are conversations that flow -- with most recent on top. Scroll down and read ealier conversations. Next.. return to the newest comments and try to participate. Always look at the ratings of the person you speak with (click their name)
When you are new, it is best to ASK questions. What, where, how and why; pretend you are a journalist. Do not advise unless you're a PRO at your topic. When you get answers from others, realize they may be right or wrong. Those who KNOW are more rare than many who think they do... and don't.
Never be rude, never use bad language. If you disagree with someone, be respectful. Isolate the idea, write clearly, do not attack the person. If someone attacks you personally, they are damaged, do NOT forget that. If you see bad language, click the FLAG by the comment and report them. DO THIS EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT SPEAKING TO YOU.
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SECTION 2 - How to single out the GOOD Idea Authors
Member popularity is not a gaurantee of quality work.
Thus this section is one I do NOT like discussing; but it's my ethical duty.
There are many great authors on here... and just as many with poor skills or hidden agendas.
To find the best forecasts and advice, you must do your own emotional profile of the author. Fact: Trading is HALF psychology. This is why bad guidance can impair your chance to make good profits.
Statistically, 85% of Tradingview members are well intentioned people. However, as an experienced online community expert, I suggest systematic scrutiny for those offering trading advice. The following methods can be applied to members AND authors.
***PART A - Most Important Character Traits
-- Relaibility and Accuracy (Note) Trades that profit 70 % of the time is your goal Do you track the author's forecasts? Do they 'play out' as shown on their chart? Is their focus on details/strategy... or emotional hype? What percentage of the time do they reach their target? How often do they come within reasonable range? Does the author publish on a regular basis? Do they comment on important price action events consistently? Do they publish at times it matters most to you?
-- Ego (Note 1) Too much ego can ruin the integrity of an author's work (Note 2) You end up with a rant instead of an analysis Writer veers off original topic before the conclusion is drawn They talk about themselves and emotional content.. often Sentence structures are hard to follow (they ramble) You are told HOW to think, instead of led to think for yourself They say they LOVE YOU too often. Seriously? That's not genuine.
A writer may come off as RIGID or arrogant when: They reply to your comments with hostility -(let us assume you did NOT provoke them) They shame you for considering methods they dislike -(even if accepted by others) They rush to discredit you -(be ready to back your claims with GOOD research)
-- Denial (Note) Deniers believe their own fabrications A denier never admits being dead wrong They act as if their errors never happened Their charts rarely show alternative price action plays Price movement in their charts are vague Deniers invent stories/fake facts to hide their mistakes
-- Misrepresentation A good trader NEVER tells you exactly when to buy It's fine (and legal) if THEY tell you when THEY buy or sell Fake TA; which is more rampant than you think
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***PART B - Secondary Assessment Points
-- Agenda (Note) We ALL have an agenda. Making a Profit. Agendas are wrong when it promotes abuse:
Some web sites pay bounties to advertise crypto and ICOs. They reach out to top web authors and offer commissions. Authors may also own businesses that feed off what they publish. ALL ARE OKAY.. if they state risk and have ZERO MISREPRESENTATION. MISREPRESENTATION can include 'fake' TA to persuade a purchase.
-- Bias (note) Everyone has bias, even those who try to be objective.
A great author identifies their own bias. Bias is not condemned when it ends up being correct in the final result. This still does NOT make it OKAY. Bias is BAD when it influences your decision and said outcome turns out incorrect. Bias always skews TRUE results. Real science tries to eliminate bias in all valid experiments.
-- Intelligence
Authors can use big terms and intimidating charts.. but THERE IS NO GUARANTEE it's GOOD TA
Common sense and experience often 'trumps' science sense.. ... but many TA pros will DENY this. (Ego or Agenda is their problem) YES - YOU CAN BE A PROFITABLE TRADER WITHOUT KNOWING EVERYTHING.
A super intelligent author may be a great person. Some are opposite and behave like arrogant children. A petty, bratty child is rarely ETHICAL, so be warned.
-- Sociopaths or Mental Disorders (note) Online, you lack a dozen clues that help you see it quickly.
Researchers recently concluded many business owners are sociopaths. They just want something from you.
Folks with mental dysfunction can be eager to chat, but rarely listen. Somes project their faults onto a 'target'... and provoke you. You'll know if they are crazy because they cannot reason well. Don't call them crazy, just say you are done with chat. Then block them.
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SECTION 3 Psychology (Mind Set) of the Trader
***Part A
Some of you might want me to rush into how to... - Select an entry price point for a trade - Establish a trend for the day - Spot a reversal of a trend - Learn to do your own TA - Recommend an exhange or tools for trading
NOT YET.. unethical without covering MIND SET first
Establish what kind of trader you want to be...
Enacting a trade once in a while is not a big deal Swing Trading or Trading on occasion is stressful and DAY TRADING... you WILL tear your hair out! It is also more exciting than a roller coaster You will lose sleep and lose weight (at least I did)
If you follow my guidelines for trading you will..
-- Master the rule of 20/80 (No one in crypto teaches this but myself) (I learned it in mathematics and marketing classes) -- Learn to stay CALM during big uncertainty -- Better handle the 'Fear of Missing Out' (FOMO) -- Become more confident in your trades -- Make good money over and over, while losing less -- Develop your own GOOD method for trading
TEN TOP RULES
Mind Set Rule 1 - Prepare Never start a trade without being prepared This means getting online and having all your 'tools' ready I will cover those tools later on and provide a checklist
Mind Set Rule 2 - Resist FOMO (covered in detail later) You will NEVER miss an opportunity Why? For each one you miss, 9 more are coming! You don't know what they are until they are upon you.
Mind Set Rule 3 - Avoid Negativity It hurts trading. Bad day, bad mood, tired? Don't trade. If were arguing with nitwits in an IDEA room.. Don't trade.
Mind Set Rule 4 - Talk to those IN THE KNOW Do not seek your friends opinions about trading They don't get it.. UNLESS they are traders, too.
Mind Set Rule 5 - Keep CALM You only LOSE YOUR ASS when... You leverage money you do not have Work with crazy amounts of money
Mind Set Rule 6 - Practice First Pretend to trade... before you trade Emmulate trading without MONEY Make a bet with yourself and follow your trade
Mind Set Rule 7 - Panic is a Disabler Pertains to top 10 coins only: If buy cyrpto and price drops you have NOT lost money That money is only lost when you SELL If you hold, you will get that money back Hence, never PANIC during price crashes
Mind Set Rule 8 - Positive Environment Watch the market even if you are not trading Visit GOOD TA ideas and rooms on Tradingview Read LOTS of GOOD NEWS OUTLETS Get as much sleep as you can, eat well
Mind Set Rule 9 - You win if you believe it Never give up, FIGHT THE FEAR OF LOSS Bad trades lead to good trades Experience is your teacher
Mind Set Rule 10 - Adhere to Strategy Never abandon a good trade strategy Strive to improve your trade strategy Test your strategy by using it
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SPECIAL BREAK DOWN SECTION
RULE 2 - FOMO - The Trader Killer
When I first began trading, it was periodic This occured in a neutral market, trading ETHER Finished with a bit over $ 400 profit (after fees) Was working with $ 1500 capital, no leverage Do the math, that's a damn good return
Made the decision to day trade... And my FOMO addiction began. Became terrified of missing any big price movements Lost sleep, lost weight, started losing money.
Learned to stop my losses. Perfected my TA, Wild Theory, Law of 20/80. Returned to making great profits. Regained all my lost funds, doubled profits weekly.
Then started reading about FOMO and its dangers. Decided to learn to beat FOMO. and do this while still making great money. Motiviation? Regain control of my life.
It worked. Still miss big trades and just shrug.
When I logged my profits vs habits... THE SPREADSHEET DATA IS STARTLING Profits were nearly the same when comparing: - A week of non-stop trading with little sleep - To strategic trading.. and when I was in the mood
How FOMO destroys your reasoning:
You make a series of trades with great profits Suddenly you watch price movement non-stop Small trades get you excited (real addiction starts here) You sleep less and eat less (or more) You fear leaving the house, fear missing movement Many of your frequent trades make profit.. but - A majority pull in very small amounts, some are losses - You make serious judgement mistakes - You do HALF your proper TA before buying in - You skip other methods that STOP you from a trade - You get back in too quickly after getting out - Friends are annoyed; alt coin is all you talk about - Little else interests you
Broke my FOMO habit by commiting to HODL (holding) Decided to resume trading when I was back to normal Tested myself; resisted a few of my own BUY forecasts (Even got followers who said they profited on my forecasts) Was happy MY ADVICE was STILL GOOD, happy I was normal again.
More advice: Prepare a check-list of things to do before you trade Watch price movement at the 5 minute charts and 1 week Beware knee-jerk reactions to sudden price drops Watch when a price drop stops at a support trend line Not all lines are strong, price often continues down Give more weight to general trend, market VOLUME Visit all the TA in Tradingview you can handle Create a plan, execute your plan DO NOT TRADE ON WHIMS OR PURE FEELING always question when you 'feel' FOMO
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SECTION 4 - Sourcing Valuable NON-TA for Price Forecasting
Fundamentals, Sentiment and MARKET FACTS
Just by being a member of Tradingview... You will learn a lot by :
- chatting with members - trading in simulation (I think Tradingview has that?) - trading in real time - visting Published Ideas - asking questions, followed by HOW WHAT WHERE WHY
You can get good at spotting people talking nonsense ... by asking these questions... and.. Having done YOUR OWN research in advance
I FORCE myself to read 20 or more articles EVERY day (whether I trade or not)
If train yourself to do this, expect to: - learn a lot about what the experts think - stumble on real studies that are factual! - see good forecasts way BEFORE others on Tradingview - understand driving and current market fundamentals - learn the difference beteen FUD and real news - develop your own market sense for price movement
and below is the BEST of my secret stash of News sources You can trust these sites in general but the article is only as good as the writer
if you see a good article.. try to Google key words of the topic see who is repeating it, see if their opinion differs
if it states any decisions of a Federal Agency visit the agency web site to make sure it is NOT fake news
Tradingview has a 'side panel' icon for news feeds Using that is better than nothing There is no bias to what they publish, it's random
I personally beleive market fundamentals are important TODAY when the market matures, less so There is a recent scientific study that sentiment affects price Half your TA publishers on here deny this is important And in my opinion, it]s why they are accurate 50% of the time Last I checked, 50% odds is mere chance.. Las Vegas style.
New research shows I am correct. See the link below:
Read this article CAREFULLY... it's the silent majority that is stressed here.
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--- SPECIAL SECTION --- Analysis Bias ---
This is where EVERYONE gets into trouble... And if you do trades based on someone else's TA... well, your trades might be influenced on THEIR BIAS
Many wise people, teachers and professionals will advise:
Gather all the information you can on a subject Ask questions Seek discussion Do Research on the Internet Compare to your own instincts Compare to your own analysis (if possible) Compare to other methods Then make an INFORMED decision
With member advice on TA, bias is a BIG risk Most authors will NOT confess their bias Some are in total denial about this bias Others have intentional bias Others have an manipulation agenda (may not be honest)
I trust day traders more than holders, bears and bulls Why? They trade for profit, they rarely have a leaning They make money in all markets The only thing important to them is profit
However, that is NOT a complete removal of bias Because METHOD of analysis is clearly a bias
Facts that some AUTHORS do not want you to know: Their TA is right 50% of the time TA is not faulty, it is incomplete This is because it has been recently proven:
A combination of methods are more accurate than any one
If you combine the analysis of: TA Wykoff EW Fundamentals Crypto News (reliable sources) Insider Information (hard to come by) Your own experience with trading
Now you can consider EVERYONE's work.. alter it as you see fit and... make profitable trades that you call yourself.
The best, most accurate TA advice you will get includes: - short term price targets; that might happen TODAY - alternative Bear and Bull price targets (by same author) - when an author admits their own bias - when an author mentions other methods other than their main focus - direct and clear discussion in their summary and comments - reveals their plan in an organized manner - shows patience with others who disagree - ability to admit when their TA was off target and starts a new plan
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SECTION 5 - BASIC TA
Many of you have been waiting patiently for this section I might add some videos for this in July
It is my opinion that to start trading... - without knowing ANY TA - without knowing important patterns - without practicing trades with NO money first - or making your first trades with very little money
is crazy risky.
Part A: CHART PATTERNS that FORECAST PRICE MOVEMENT
First thing you should do is research PATTERNS It's time consuming; you will need to memorize them but well worth knowing what they do off the top of your head
Reviewing over and over = Memory My style is to make a FOLDER on my desktop Name the folder: TUTORIALS Then place these URL links inside the folder
There are a dozen important patterns. in the meantime, visit these URLs below
Open an URL DRAG the internet icon (page link) to your desktop Create a FOLDER on your desktop Drag the internet icon into that folder Rename the URL so they remind you what they do
The list below are the most frequent you will see:
Take any key word and GOOGLE the term You will find tons of Youtube videos and FREE libraries of info
Here are my favorite other chart pages to watch price movement (Not including Tradingview chart views) Select different time periods of each chart Some charts allow you to select Exchanges (etheruumprice URL)
Notes: Bitcointicker Chart Site Opens to 1 hour setting as default page Only good for when you ENTER/EXIT a trade 24 hour view is best for general movement 30 day is good for mapping longer trends
Ethereum Chart You can select the Exchange Views are 12 hr, 24 hr, 1 wk, 1 mo, 3 mo, year and can be changed at the CLICK of a button Since ETH follows BTC... ETH 'chart patterns' are MORE clear in ETH than in BTC I watch ETH to better see BTC patterns DO NOT MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY USE BOTH URLS