Wave 4 correcting Wave 3 has completed. Onward with Wave 5. Sub-waves will advance and correct as progress continues. Sub-wave (5) of 5 of 1 of 1 of 5 is in process. The correction of (5) of 5 of 1 to mark wave 2 provides an opportunity to add or initiate positions at lower risk for traders and Hodlers who missed the corrective Wave C of Wave 4 low and the motive wave 1 entry or corrective wave 2 confirmation above the 206.5 low.
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Descending resistance trend line target for (5) of 5 of 1reached.
What happens here is TBD.
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This is not the correction or retracement I was anticipating. If the price breaks to a new, post-large scale correction high, I will have to re-label the wave count. Because it's not correct.
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Update to ETH Wave Count. Some things take longer than expected to play out.
While the price of ETHUSD is dropping toward the target retracement of $260, the majority of the large cap crypto space is under pressure. A reduced price target of $232 or less, down to the rising support trend line is possible. Trade with caution.
A break of the rising trend line that has for 3 tests held support, is not a guarantee.
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Update for anyone following in real-time. The rising trend line of support may be tested again if the pattern holds.
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Falling Wedge Pattern Broken. Downside acceleration may be about to begin. Assessing targets and possible wave counts.
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Another real time update. The falling wedge morphed into the second leg of a Zig-Zag, Wave C. For this correction, wave A now equals wave C. This question is, is it complete or will wave C extend?
During Zig-Zag corrections, sometimes A=C, 1 - A = 323.69 - 283 = 50.69 and B - 50.69 = 306.5 - 50.69 = 255.81. Is this (c), C, & 2?
If (c) extends, a 1.618 extension breaks the rising support trend line, but does not break the current wave starting point of 1.
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ETHUSD Update: Rising long term trend line is again testing support and larger time scale Elliot Wave count. Having completed Wave C of 4, lower left corner, (1) & 1 of ? of 5 appear to be well supported by small detail level counts. The question is the upward sloping trend line of support holds to mark (C) of C of 2 of ? of 5, or whether a deeper correction where the extent of Wave C deepens to Wave C =Wave A in price change, which could shake loose many bulls. That deeper correction point would violate the long term trend line, but still mark a new higher low in the sequence of Waves (2) of 2 of ? of 5, possible near the 223 price level. Stay tuned...
Dave, I agree, this thing is going up. Might take a while but it will go up...
RogueDave
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Another real time update. The falling wedge morphed into the second leg of a Zig-Zag, Wave C. For this correction, wave A now equals wave C. This question is, is it complete or will wave C extend?
During Zig-Zag corrections, sometimes A=C, 1 - A = 323.69 - 283 = 50.69 and B - 50.69 = 306.5 - 50.69 = 255.81. Is this (c), C, & 2?
If (c) extends, a 1.618 extension breaks the rising support trend line, but does not break the current wave starting point of 1.
imos
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Might need to be replotted at this point
silmaril0875
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With a RSI at 64 at $321, I'm not sure i will retrace to anything...
silmaril0875
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@silmaril0875, Changing my own view of this. RSI is dropping and micro trend is downwards. @RogueDave, I think we might break down to $310 as the bears might have this one in the bag...
Looks pretty accurate so far! Great analysis. Looking forward to seeing where we go from here :)
RogueDave
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@daniswaving, Thanks Dan! I may need to Up Scale W1 and W2 (post W3C/W4), and re-assign 3,4, & 5, as 1,2, & 3 at lower scale, if this expected correction doesn't carry though. Great thing about EW analysis, is it's not set in stone. ;)
RogueDave
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@daniswaving, LOL, looks like I just needed to be a little more patient... :)