∆3 - Analysis
Ascending Triangles are a continuation pattern where the expected growth after exiting the triangle is approximately the height of the triangle. The height of the triangle here is about 55 (All triangle heights depicted by light-blue, vertical lines). Strictly based on this pattern type we'd expect the target price to be $540 if we add the height to the breakout zone of $485. Note, target prices for the other two ascending triangles are depicted by the same blue line just copied and moved to the top of the breakout zone.
History Repeats | ∆1-3
Through out the three weeks we can see 2 ascending triangles completed (∆1-2) each of which follow the expected continuation on exit. Although there's no way to a guarantee a pattern will ever persist, the happening twice with a third forming allows us to at least speculate and deduce some trends.
Additionally, these three ascending triangles seem to be following a fibonacci growth pattern with the .78 & .62 fib lines lining up with breakout zones and target prices.
- Consider first the red fibonacci set, which goes from the bottom of ∆1 to the target of ∆2. The .78 line is right at the breakout zone, and the .62 line is right at the target.
- The purple fibonacci set, which goes from the bottom of ∆2 to the target of ∆3. The .78 line is right at the breakout zone, and the .62 line is just below the target.
- The green fibonacci set was left on accident. Please disregard it.
Extrapolating onto a third fibonacci represented by the yellow. The .78 would be at the breakout line and .62 would suggest the target price which is at $530.
My last post had a target price of $500 but it wasn't reached. I believe the has lost some structure without an obvious decrease for Wave 4 to suggest wave 5. Since then is when we've seen the ascending pattern start to take a more definitive shape.
** Comments and critiques always welcome especially contrasting ideas
It looks like we topped out at $520 last night and have been decreasing since then, but fear not! Looking at the 5-15 minute charts you can see a very nice flag-pattern forming. Once this reaches the bottom of the flag (my rough guess $496) we will see more growth to our $530 target.
Link to flag pattern on imgur: