It appears that wave A of (2) may have completed with the retrace of 61.8% of the overall gain since ETH began trading. The wave B of (2) bounce is struggling to gain traction, will likely be minimal, and will take time. How much time is anyone's guess. All that is in prelude to wave C of (2), which could take ETH lower still, potentially to 100 area (or lower), if the final lower will reach to the level.
Exit the majority of any positions during this bounce, or seek to find a pair trading against ETH, or if you've got real guts and can do the due diligence and required research, exchange your ETH for a newly issued token and gamble on an ICO . Wait until sentiment has reached the complete loss of faith in ETH, and it is given up for dead. That is when like a phoenix, it will arise from the ashes.
Add to this today's statements from the SEC that new ICO token issuance may be subject to SEC registration requirements (ruling based on the DAO case). https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2... . While many ICOs were already precluding US citizens from participating from in the token sales on concerns that the SEC would do what it has now done, this will have an impact on ETH demand, that would otherwise potentially been present. There are plenty of opinion pieces around to read, few if any are bullish in regard to what this means for ICOs, and by extension, this also applied then to ETH.
So as I ponder these drivers, and think about future events, as ETH continues its Wave C of 2, I look at that vast expanse of space below and to the right of ETH's current location, the one thing that attracts my forward seeing eye, is the divider between the grey netherworld, and the bottom of the deep blue sea... Here is where the treasure chest of low prices lays, deep under frothy windblown whitecaps that the good ship ETH used to sail upon.
Boo hoo, terrible Wave 2.
No, it is not all one big easy to explain triangle.
How low will it go? How fast will it get there? No one knows.
Wave C of (2) should be grinding and relentless. It will not stop until it's done and the bullish mind set is vanquished. It cannot be bargained with, it will have no mercy and take no prisoners.
Where Wave A of (2) was volatile, large fast swings, a sprinter. Wave C of (2) will doggedly press on, relentlessly, a marathoner.
Can I get in low enough? Nope missed my entry.
Sub-wave A has completed, and it's rolling over to B, maybe it'll drop far enough. Oh, no, oh crap, a triangle will suck up a lot of energy, how is this going to affect the remaining drop, best case?
Nope, killed the drop. Oh well, let's see how this plays out and lighten up on any ETH I want to get rid of before the plunge that 3 of C of II is surely going to bring. Got rid of some ETH at 3 of (5) of C, but again the triangle (flat-top) used up so much energy, plowing through sell walls, it stunted the rebound and my higher target orders (78.6% retracement) didn't liquidate.
Maybe this will just turnout to be A of 2 of 5 of C of II.
Given the target established at the macro level, Wave (1) ended, and Wave (2) has begum correcting Wave (1), and wave 2's normally correct the vast majority of the wave 1 gain, I set a target at the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Since the relief rally bounce, wave 1 of 5 of C of (2) consumed 53-54 points of the anticipated decline. Additionally, since wave 1's and wave 5's tend toward equality in length, we can expect wave 5 of 5 of C of (2) to also be 53-54 point. Wave 2 was a zig-zag rise and modest in height at 61.8%, so wave 4 should be shallow and a flat or triangle, but only be a 23.6% to 38.2% retracement. If we solve for Fibonacci extensions of wave 1 (53 * 1.618 = 86) and then taking the high price of wave 2 of 5 of C of (2), 210, and subtract the extension value, 210 - 85 = 124, the target for wave 3 of 5 of C of (2) is determined. I shaved a few points off for round.
Here's your target ETHians, got your deep sea diving gear on? This move should leave the last of the ETH Bulls sobbing in their pens. Boo Hoo! Terrible Wave (2).
An update to the count and reiteration of the target. Time to target is unknown, but the general target level remains the same:
Will the bull gore the bear? Or has the bear awoken from his short hibernation, and is it ready to feast on bull-tard meat by dragging the corpse to its lair and cave in the low triple digits or high double digits?
Boohoo Terrible 2...
Then the downward legs of "C" began. The descent to "C" will occur in 5 larger legs or waves. 3 down and 2 up. The downward waves (because it's a bear market) will be composed of 5 sub-waves, while the corrective waves will contain 3 sub-waves.
If you want to learn about Elliott Wave Analysis, an excellent introductory set of lessons can be found here: http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics1.htm