offers a way to categorize market movements and provides a framework to help anticipate how the herd is likely to react next. I am always aware of wave counts, but I do not write about them unless they are worth noting in order to avoid confusion. Now is one of those times worth mentioning where this market is in terms of wave count.
At the moment, this market appears to be in a Wave 3 of a broader 5. This price action is typical of a wave 3 since it can never be the shortest wave according to impulse wave rules. This also means the next retrace will be a sub wave 4 and likely unfold in some form of narrow range triangle before breaking out and completing 5 of 5 waves. This serves as a broader road map, and is not an absolute prediction.
The potential support levels for the sub wave 4 can be around the 1000 level (.382 of current swing measured from 640 low) or the 863 to 771 zone (.618 of same swing). These are the levels to evaluate for smaller time frame price reversals that can lead to the next wave which has the proportional target of 1385 (2.618 projection measured from 492 low).
Buying highs is a high risk behavior, while locking in some profit is a best practice, especially in markets that go vertical like this one. IF the current candle closes in this configuration (a ) that warns of further selling and can be the beginning of the sub wave 4 retrace.
In summary, there are always more opportunities in these markets and no need to be emotional about missing out. All markets retrace and offer more opportunities at much more attractive reward/risk ratios. The next significant retrace in this market still offers an attractive buying opportunity for at least one more leg higher before it is reasonable to expect a much broader correction based on the current wave count. The best thing you can do is be patient and keep an eye on the bigger picture because it helps you anticipate the herd and not react to it.
Comments and questions welcome.
Do you think that the recent rise in ETH is partly due to it being used as a principal trading pair on a number of exchanges?
Traditionally when there was a correction BTC would see a pump as people sold out of alt coins, now with high BTC fees and slow transaction times it often makes more sense to exit via another door (ETH), and since a number of exchanges don't offer fiat pairs (Binance only has a couple of USDT pairs) funds are finding their way to ETH instead.
If this is true, then the next rally with alt coins may see the price of ETH come down again.