Why The "Speculative Attack" On Ethereum Is Doomed To Fail
This idea is not meant to be primarily technical, but a more fundamental analysis to elaborate why the ongoing attempt to use Ethereum Classic (ETC) as a tool to execute a "speculative attack" on Ethereum (ETH) cannot possibly succeed ever!
To keep things simple, the underlying market mechanism of a "speculative attack" can be described as following. In a market where uncertainty over future expectations becomes increasingly dominant, the attacker tries to enforce a sudden negative sentiment switch of the market sentiment towards one side of the relevant currency pair. He does so by
a) spreading misinformation and FUD and
b) increasing the demand for the seemingly "strenghtening" currency
up to a point at which the "rational" market participant feels forced to follow this market notion to prevent financial losses and/or get a piece of the expected specualtive financial gains. In such a situation, major backers of the attacked currency (e.g. central banks) on the other side will step in by trying to absorb the increasing selling pressure to prevent massive devaluation. Meaning, the "rational" investor (mainly driven by fundamentals) and the financial power of the major supporters are the natural enemies of the attacker.
Let´s stop here for a bit and think about how this applies here... (updating in about 1 hour)
To keep things simple, the underlying market mechanism of a "speculative attack" can be described as following. In a market where uncertainty over future expectations becomes increasingly dominant, the attacker tries to enforce a sudden negative sentiment switch of the market sentiment towards one side of the relevant currency pair. He does so by
a) spreading misinformation and FUD and
b) increasing the demand for the seemingly "strenghtening" currency
up to a point at which the "rational" market participant feels forced to follow this market notion to prevent financial losses and/or get a piece of the expected specualtive financial gains. In such a situation, major backers of the attacked currency (e.g. central banks) on the other side will step in by trying to absorb the increasing selling pressure to prevent massive devaluation. Meaning, the "rational" investor (mainly driven by fundamentals) and the financial power of the major supporters are the natural enemies of the attacker.
Let´s stop here for a bit and think about how this applies here... (updating in about 1 hour)
Kommentar:
So, after also consulting the Cryptocurrencies chat room and invoking ETC supporters to name fundamentals in the comment section backing up the speculation, I conclude as following.
While the hashing rate is the only SUPPOSEDLY fundamental backup on the Ethereum Classic side of the story, the picture is a whole different one when looking into the already very well developed Ethereum ecosystem. Here we have major companies like Microsoft, Deloitte, ThompsonReuters and RWE (to just name a few) and a whole lot of other promising start-ups like Consensys (consensys.net/), TransActive Grid (transactivegrid.net/), Balanc3 (balanc3.net/), BlockApps (blockapps.net/), BoardRoom (boardroom.to/), EtherEx (etherex.org/), Gnosis (gnosis.pm/), Ujo Music (ujomusic.com/), Slockit (slock.it/), AKASHA (akasha.world/), METAMASK (metamask.io/), Augur (www.augur.net/), REGIS (regis.nu/),.... And so forth.
Taking this into account, only a complete fool would still assume, that hashing rate alone was a proper measure (if any whatsoever) to evaluate a network could and could make up for real value created in the REAL WORLD. Therefore, all those trolls bringing this forward to support the outrageous and 100%(!!!) unsustainable ETC speculation are wether really that dumb or simply spreading such nonsense against better knowledge to fuel this pump&dump scheme (which is more likely imo). By doing so, they might succeed to drag even more "stupid money" in, but the "rational" investor is not very impressed. He/She/It is not interested in pure speculation based on nothing, but decides where to invest based on true fundamentals.
Ethereum Classic will never be able to convince the "rational" investor, because it massively lacks any fundamentals in general and most certainly will never catch up with the already very well-established Ethereum ecosystem ever! ....(to be continued in a bit)
While the hashing rate is the only SUPPOSEDLY fundamental backup on the Ethereum Classic side of the story, the picture is a whole different one when looking into the already very well developed Ethereum ecosystem. Here we have major companies like Microsoft, Deloitte, ThompsonReuters and RWE (to just name a few) and a whole lot of other promising start-ups like Consensys (consensys.net/), TransActive Grid (transactivegrid.net/), Balanc3 (balanc3.net/), BlockApps (blockapps.net/), BoardRoom (boardroom.to/), EtherEx (etherex.org/), Gnosis (gnosis.pm/), Ujo Music (ujomusic.com/), Slockit (slock.it/), AKASHA (akasha.world/), METAMASK (metamask.io/), Augur (www.augur.net/), REGIS (regis.nu/),.... And so forth.
Taking this into account, only a complete fool would still assume, that hashing rate alone was a proper measure (if any whatsoever) to evaluate a network could and could make up for real value created in the REAL WORLD. Therefore, all those trolls bringing this forward to support the outrageous and 100%(!!!) unsustainable ETC speculation are wether really that dumb or simply spreading such nonsense against better knowledge to fuel this pump&dump scheme (which is more likely imo). By doing so, they might succeed to drag even more "stupid money" in, but the "rational" investor is not very impressed. He/She/It is not interested in pure speculation based on nothing, but decides where to invest based on true fundamentals.
Ethereum Classic will never be able to convince the "rational" investor, because it massively lacks any fundamentals in general and most certainly will never catch up with the already very well-established Ethereum ecosystem ever! ....(to be continued in a bit)
Kommentar:
Instead of continueing to elaborate further details, I wanna cut the crap and finalize this analysis with the
FINAL CONCLUSION.
Taking the massive gap of supporting fundamentals and the underlying ideological intentions into account, the entire attempt to use Ethereum Clasic as a tool to execute a speculative attack on Ethereum can only be described as tragicomedy. While it is very tragical that exchanges (first and foremost Poloniex) decided to support an unsecure chain hi-jacked by a few individuals, it is equally hilarious that those butthurt Bitcoiners running the show, who switched form hating Ethereum to jumping on it post fork, obviously believe they can succeed, although failing on multiple levels simultaneously.
By exposing themselves not only as terrible economists with a very poor understanding for real market mechanisms, but also as dishonest hypocrites driven by a hostile /destructive mindset, they add further evidence for the complete (economical, ideological and community-wise) failure of Bitcoin. Since this is going to fire back badly in terms of accelerating the falldown of their own project, they might end up baghodling two failed cryptocurrencies after all... And, such scenario is more than just likely.
On the other side of the story, Ethereum will relentlessly continue to thrive based on further technical improvement as well as an exponential growth of its ecosystem. This becomes even more self-evident when simply realizing that the financial power of its backup outruns any amount ETC pumpers can possibly put on the table multiple times... One must wonder, if they are in complete denial, or just not aware of who they are dealing with here.
Well, time will tell...
All The Best & Happy Tarding!
(BTW, no hate /offense intended! ...I have been a Bitcoin supporter for the better part of the past 3 years. Such individuals, as involved in the ETC pump&fail scheme, and their attitude were a major reason for me quitting, not Bitcoin itself... Crypto World would be faaar better off without those clowns who have turned Bitcoin into an absolute joke. In case you are still supporting this circus, you might wanna think about it for a minute or two and re-consider, if this is what you want all cryptos to become. Peaz!)
FINAL CONCLUSION.
Taking the massive gap of supporting fundamentals and the underlying ideological intentions into account, the entire attempt to use Ethereum Clasic as a tool to execute a speculative attack on Ethereum can only be described as tragicomedy. While it is very tragical that exchanges (first and foremost Poloniex) decided to support an unsecure chain hi-jacked by a few individuals, it is equally hilarious that those butthurt Bitcoiners running the show, who switched form hating Ethereum to jumping on it post fork, obviously believe they can succeed, although failing on multiple levels simultaneously.
By exposing themselves not only as terrible economists with a very poor understanding for real market mechanisms, but also as dishonest hypocrites driven by a hostile /destructive mindset, they add further evidence for the complete (economical, ideological and community-wise) failure of Bitcoin. Since this is going to fire back badly in terms of accelerating the falldown of their own project, they might end up baghodling two failed cryptocurrencies after all... And, such scenario is more than just likely.
On the other side of the story, Ethereum will relentlessly continue to thrive based on further technical improvement as well as an exponential growth of its ecosystem. This becomes even more self-evident when simply realizing that the financial power of its backup outruns any amount ETC pumpers can possibly put on the table multiple times... One must wonder, if they are in complete denial, or just not aware of who they are dealing with here.
Well, time will tell...
All The Best & Happy Tarding!
(BTW, no hate /offense intended! ...I have been a Bitcoin supporter for the better part of the past 3 years. Such individuals, as involved in the ETC pump&fail scheme, and their attitude were a major reason for me quitting, not Bitcoin itself... Crypto World would be faaar better off without those clowns who have turned Bitcoin into an absolute joke. In case you are still supporting this circus, you might wanna think about it for a minute or two and re-consider, if this is what you want all cryptos to become. Peaz!)
Kommentar:
In case this ponzi keeps on against all reason, Crypto World as a whole is finished. Even the most butthurt Bitcoiner cannot possibly be that dumb... Unless on a suicide mission
Kommentar:
1432 view, but only 11 likes!? Saaaay woooooot!? Show some more love ;)
Kommentar:
Aaaaaand... DED. Finally... Eventually... ;)
Kommentar:
In case Ethereum Classsic defines its value according to #hashrate, it is about 20% overvalued here. Time to SELL!
It becomes more and more blatantly obvious, that the vast majority of the Ethereum Classic "supporters" consists of butthurt Bitcoiners and ruthless speculat00ors who, united in their hate and greed, try to damage (or even completely destroy) the proclaimed enemy Ethereum by executing a speculative attack on the two relevant currency pairs ETHBTC and ETCBTC.
Applying the mechanisms of a speculative attack as described above, their tools of choice are the (artifical) increase of demand for ETC by basically pumping up the ETCBTC market (themselves) to attract greedy speculators, and spreading outrageous FUD /misinformation in the desperate attempt to make "rational" investors jump ship as well. While their pump is apparently attracting a significant amount of fools and n00bs (who later will end up carrying heavy bags), the main problem with their strategy is the complete lack of any TRUE FUNDAMENTALS, which are absolutely MANDATORY (caps cannot emphasize this enough, so picture it underlined several times) for the overall success of a speculative attack, since at the end of the day, the still widespread notion amongst speculators - it was all "just about money and profits" - is nothing more than a flawed perception of reality...
So, what are the fundamentals here? ...(updating later on today)