US Dollar Index - Long-term perspective

TVC:DXY   US-Dollar Währungsindex
121 0
Index: US Dollar Index
Frequency: Weekly
Predicted Direction:

Short on short-term perspective
Fundamental Analysis
1. Geopolitical risk between US and DPRK is getting more serious after the launch of missiles
2. Lets see how Trump reacting to the threaten from DPRK. I personally think that this geopolitical risk will last longer than before.
3. US can't get Tax Reform done in the short term
4. Trump was deliberately trying to weaken the dollar for his economic plan
5. More solid fundamentals news are required to boost the dollar i.e. June NFPs so be attention of Sep NFPs

Technical Analysis
1. DXY broke the weekly 200MA
2. Hit the first 38.2% fib level at 92.29 and is now testing the fib supporting zone (92.29 -91.45). Small correction is expected.
3. DXY find support on second fib zone (89.76 - 88.69). Price would likely to rebound on this level.
4. Bullish Cypher Pattern form at 88.29. If this level breaks, then I rather believe there is no hope for US dollar index on the following years.

Long Position if:
1. Placing a bet on long position if US is confirmed to have a plan to reduce its balance sheet on September. As I believe that the Fed would unlikely to raise interest rates on Sep so quantitative tightening would be the only way to correct the bearish momentum of dollar
2. RSI is currently hit the oversold zone since 2011. Waiting for stronger signal to enter the long position.

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