Dollar index bigger picture

The dollar index might have ended the wave 4 correction which means that we will see a test of 100 with EURUSD going to parity. In my previous posts I explained why the structure was corrective and what to look for. So far everything lines up, however this doesn't mean that the dollar index can't take out the low at 92. This does however mean that IF the dollar index moves lower again it should do that in 3 waves from the current levels. So even if it moves lower we can wait, adjust and trade a high probability sell. (wave 4 will change into a W-X-Y-X-Z structure in blue)
For now I focus on the 4 hour time frame where a correction might be starting soon.

I determined for different reasons the 98 and 98.5 zone as high probability reversal zones (short term).
We have FOMC on Wednesday so I will update up to that event because it seems that structure is setting up a trade for FOMC.
For intra day trading I consider the arrows on the 4 hr time frame as the high probability trades.

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Kommentar:

The move lower we saw from 97.50 was corrective. So now the question is was this only a wave A and will we see a wave C lower next as shown by means of the bearish arrow? If we see that happening we can have some fun trading FOMC. With what is going on in Europe with all the uncertainty the FED might come up with some excuses not to do much in the near term. However even if the FED disappoints nothing changes in Europe. We also know that the rate hike was foolish from the beginning and FED is looking for excuses to break their promises regarding that rate hike ever since. This all resulted in major consolidations for Dollar Index and EURUSD. I don't see this end soon so be prepared to trade the range for a little longer (range on daily time frame so still very interesting).
Nevertheless I'm not projecting what makes sense because if the market made sense we had not as much volatility as we see every single day. So forget that and only keep it in mind when looking for levels to trade from and context why we might see spikes without follow ups. (some call it stop grabbers I call it opportunity)
Structure tells us what's next in the best possible way. If we see a third leg lower I will prepare for a buy, FOMC or not. I showed major levels if price moves higher and these levels will be important when trading FOMC.
I'll update but not share trade idea's. When I trade news events I make a very specific trade plan and adjust very fast when needed and the lag in posting might hurt others.
However I will update tomorrow and explain what I'm looking for. If the market does what I want I will get triggered during the volatility, if not I'm not in the trade and let it all settle before entering this instrument again.

Kommentar:

I would like to see this sell opportunity before FOMC to happen (3rd leg lower), in that case I will be looking for a buy later on (probably during the event). However IF price extends higher up to FOMC I will be looking for a sell (ideally our of that zone I showed in the previous chart). If I don't see any of these two scenario's unfold the way I like it, I let it go because it can also turn into a non-event or an unclear structure up to NF. I'll will update later on today.

Kommentar:

Kommentar:

Daily shows 3 waves at the moment and if we don't see a new high this means that we have to focus on the bearish scenario I described in the original post (W-X-Y-X-Z).

However the 1 hour time frame makes me believe we are dealing with an ABC correction.

So the plan is simple as always, IF we see a consolidation after the bearish impulse of today, prepare to sell (which will result in another bearish break and likely a new low, below 91.90). If we see on the other hand a reversal, wait for the consolidation and prepare to buy to target a break above 97.50.