wolfah
Long

DJI First target reached!

TVC:DJI   Der Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
DJI: ST             very oversold situation! 0,24-target for a wave 4 of an Extension3-wave reached!!! For a Extension5-wave the target for wave 4 would be 0,38 at 22500. All depends on the red dotted trendline , if it gives sufficient support or not. - In both cases, the Dow should get a little boost today! Keep you posted.
Thanks for this "Excellent Post" --- Very Nice Chart Work
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This is one of many questions to think about at this time. (Elliott Wave Patterns)
#1 = Is this 5 Waves Up (Completed) from the March, 2009 -- "Great Recession" -- Low ?
#2 = Is this the top of Wave 3 from the -- "Great Recession" -- Low ?
With Wave 4 Down and Wave 5 Up left to complete.
#3 = From the top looks like -- "5 Waves Down" -- 2-10-2018 -- (This is My opinion only)
Look at -- Dow Jones -- SP 500 -- SP 100 -- Nasdaq -- Daily Bar Chart -- and -- Daily Line Chart.
What do you Think ?
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"Great Recession Low" --- "One of many" -- "Elliott Wave Counts" to think about. Dow Jones Ind.
a = Wave 1 up -- Started at March, 2009 at 6,469.95 -- ended at April, 2010 high 11,258.01
b = Wave 2 down -- Started 11,258.01 high --- Ended 9,614.32 low
b = Wave 3 up -- Started at July, 2010 low at 9,614.32 -- ended at January 26, 2018 high 26,616.71
c = Wave 4 down -- Started at January 26, 2018 high 26,616.71
What do you Think ?
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This "Is Not" a recommendation to buy or sell anything. -- This is for information only.

"Good Luck" and "Good Trading"
"One Eye Jim"
Antworten
wolfah jeffreyjim
@jeffreyjim, thank you for your comments!
Given the fact, that my historical data are from January 1907 up til now, I try to answer your questions. First of all, we need to analyse the higher timeframes:

"Super Cycles" (analog Prechter's book):
Wave1: High 381 Sep. 1929
Wave2: Low 41 Jul. 1932
Wave3: ??? The High 26616 in Jan 2018 could be the top of wave3, but for a correct calculation, you would need to have the starting point for wave1, which I don't have and probably nobody has!


"Cycles" (analog Prechter's book) as a "Extension5" 1,618 of wave 3 (target 26428)
Wave1: High 194 Mar. 1937
Wave2: Low 93 May. 1942
Wave3: High 995 Mar. 1966
Wave4: Low 570 Dec. 1974
Wave5: ??? The High 26616 in Jan 2018 could be the top, but exceeded the target from above by almost 200 points. My automated system tells me however, that this would be the least possible result!!!

"Primary" for Cycles Wave5 (my own analysis):
Wave1: High 1018 Jul. 1976
Wave2: Low 769 May. 1982
Wave3: High 11908 Jan. 2000
Wave4: Low 6470 Mar. 2009
Wave5: could only be a "Impulse"-Wave with the next probale target at 35151 (0,618 of Wave3)!

NOW THE INTERESTING PART (lower time frames)!

Scenario I:

"Intermediate" for Primary Wave 5:
Wave1: High 11258 Apr. 2010
Wave2: Low 9614 Jul. 2010
Wave3: ??? High 18351 Jun 2015 or unrealistic High of 26616 in Jan 2018?
Wave4: ??? Low 15450 Jan 2016
Wave5: ??? "Impulse" with possible target =30000 or beyond ("Extension5")?

Scenario II: (most favorable)

"Intermediate" for Primary Wave 5:
Wave1: High 11258 Apr. 2010
Wave2: Low 9614 Jul. 2010
Wave3 still in progress!!!

"Minor" (brown) for Intermediate Wave3:
Wave1: High 12876 May. 2011
Wave2: Low 10404 Oct. 2011
Wave3: High 18350 Jun. 2015
Wave4: Low 15503 Feb. 2016
Wave5: still in progress as, "Extension5" with 1,62 target of wave3 (38830)

"Minute" (blue) for Minor Wave5:
as shown in the chart

"Minuette" (red) for Minute Wave3:
as shown in the chart above

"Subminuette" (grey) of Minuette Wave5:
as shown



#1: No, can't see the end of the "Primary" 5th wave. See above.

#2: No. In my view it, is not the top of an "Intermediate" wave 3. There is still upside potential.

#3: Given the fact, that the market is STRONGLY oversold and it is a correction of lower wave degrees ("Minute" and "Minuette"), I cannot see the market is in a bigger corrective "Impulse"-wave, which leads further downward for the very shortterm.

a: Correct

b1: Correct

b2: See above

c: See #3


Good Luck and thank you again for sharing my idea
Wolf













Antworten
wolfah wolfah
@wolfah, On Friday, there should have been more selling pressure, but the DJI ended up 330 points. (Just an idea...)
Antworten
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